Russo-Ukrainian war, day 795. Italy covertly supplies Ukraine with Storm Shadows; Germany slammed for witholding Taurus

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Ukraine FM Kuleba: “Political animal” Putin aggresses when senses fear, while strength makes him retreat. Ukrainian FM Kuleba urges projecting strength to deter Putin, noting that the Russian leader becomes more aggressive when he senses fear.

Military

Ukraine downs Russian drones with Soviet-era training plane in WWI-style dogfight. Amateur aviators from Odesa have recreated a World War I tactic of the second pilot shooting with small arms to down a Russian recon drone

Ukrainian drone attack on Russian airfield hits gliding bomb depot, possibly damages aircraft. The massive Ukrainian drone attack on 27 April was centered around Kushchyovskaya airfield. As well, an oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai halted production

Syrskyi: Ukraine retreats from three settlements, gains island as Russia “aims to seize strategic initiative”. The most intensive line of attack is in the Avdiivka direction, with certain positions changing hands several times a day

ISW: Russian forces to make significant tactical gains before Ukraine stabilizes frontlines later on. The ISW predicts Russian tactical advances but believes Ukrainian defenses will hold with upcoming US support. Russian forces plan a significant offensive, yet are not expected to break Ukrainian lines even with numerical superiority.

As of 28 Apr 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 466150 (+1096)
    • Tanks: 7279 (+11)
    • APV: 13991 (+20)
    • Artillery systems: 11948 (+43)
    • MLRS: 1050 (+1)
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 776 (+1)
    • Aircraft: 348
    • Helicopters: 325
    • UAV: 9507 (+22)
    • Cruise missiles : 2124
    • Warships/boats: 26
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 16065 (+46)

Intelligence and technology

WSJ: Germany opposes seizing Russian assets, fearing WWII-era reparations. The US and U.K. say commandeering Russian assets is crucial for Ukraine’s victory, but Europe remains divided.

Italy supplies Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles, UK Defense Secretary discloses. UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps reveals Italy’s not yet officially confirmed covert provision of Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, and urges Germany to provide Taurus missiles.

Scholz’s refusal to give Ukraine Taurus missile “increasingly incomprehensible,” Munich Security Conference chief says. The Munich Security Conference’s chief challenges German Chancellor Scholz’s refusal to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine, saying Scholz’s rejection is “becoming increasingly incomprehensible.”

The Telegraph: UK to develop its hypersonic missile by 2030 to catch up with China, Russia, and US. Tasked with creating missiles capable of withstanding the blistering speeds of hypersonic flight, engineers are facing significant challenges, including the need to invent new materials for such missiles from scratch.

WP: New US weapons to strengthen Ukraine’s military defenses amid shortage in manpower, say officials. US officials said Ukraine is unlikely to launch a major offensive against Russian troops due to the delay in the US military assistance.

International

Polish FM: If Putin wins, he’ll mobilize Ukraine’s people and industry to continue war, like Hitler did with Czechoslovakia. Polish FM Sikorski warns that a victorious Putin might mobilize Ukraine’s industry and people for war, similar to Hitler’s use of Czechoslovakia, potentially escalating to a direct threat against NATO countries including Poland.

CNN: Blinken urges China to cease support of Russian defense industry amid his latest trip. The US Secretary of State’s recent trip to China discussed the issue of Beijing’s support for Moscow’s defense industry. He warned that the US would escalate sanctions if China continued its support.

FT: Türkiye aims to reduce reliance on Russian gas with US LNG deal. As Türkiye’s long-term natural gas contracts with Russia and Iran approach expiry, the country is turning to the US and ExxonMobil for a significant LNG supply agreement.

Czech foreign minister warns Putin’s aggression threatens Europe’s stability. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský, speaking alongside his Hungarian counterpart Péter Szijjártó at a press conference in Budapest, issued a stark warning about the war in Ukraine and its implications on Europe’s future.

Humanitarian and social impact

HRW, Truth Hounds document Russia’s destruction of Mariupol. Satellite imagery analysis of mass graves in Mariupol suggests at least 10,284 people were buried between March 2022 and February 2023, according to a new report

Russia shells Ukraine’s DTEK thermal plants nearly 180 times since all-out war began. Since the 2022 full-scale invasion began, Russia has targeted the Ukrainian DTEK company’s thermal power plants nearly 180 times, with four major facilities severely damaged in yesterday’s assault, as per the company’s CEO.

Political and legal developments

Ukrainians stabbed to death by Russian in Germany were soldiers undergoing rehab. Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany suspects a national motive behind the murder

Russian stabs to death two Ukrainians in Germany’s Bavaria. German police arrest a Russian national for the fatal stabbing of two Ukrainians outside a shopping mall in Bavaria. The investigation is underway.

Massive blaze reported at key Russian military vehicle supplier Kamaz. The Kamaz truck factory in Naberezhnye Chelny, which saw its profits surge last year as it supplied the Russian army, was engulfed in a major fire on April 28 at its main production site.

BBC: UK charges two individuals accused of helping Russian intelligence in attack on Ukrainian business. Dylan Earl and Jake Reeves were accused of involvement in the arson plot, which allegedly aimed to benefit the Russian state.

Read our earlier daily review here.