Russo-Ukrainian war, day 802: Russia masses troops near Chasiv Yar; Poland, France advocate strategic ambiguity on deploying NATO troops to Ukraine
Russia has amassed up to 25,000 troops near Chasiv Yar; France's President and Polish FM advocate for strategic ambiguity regarding the possibility of Western military involvement in Ukraine.
Exclusives
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Military
Russia amasses up to 25,000 troops near Donetsk Oblast’s Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian military spokesman says Russia has positioned 20,000-25,000 troops near Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut, targeting the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast as part of their strategic military goals.
ISW says waiting for US aid, Ukraine retreats from villages near Avdiivka to avoid being outflanked by Russia. ISW says Ukrainian forces are retreating from villages like Arkhanhelske northwest of Avdiivka, trading territory for time to avoid being outflanked by advancing Russian troops before Western military aid arrives.
Ukraine downs 23 out of 24 Shahed drones overnight, launches investigation into Russia’s war crimes. The continuous assaults on Ukraine from Russian occupiers highlight the urgent need for bolstering Ukraine’s air defense capabilities.
Self-propelled howitzer duel: Ukraine’s Archer ACS destroyed Russian Msta-S in Luhansk Oblast (video). Ukraine’s 45th Artillery Brigade utilized a Swedish Archer gun to destroy a camouflaged Russian howitzer in Luhansk Oblast.
Intelligence and technology
Finnish intel: Russia’s goal is undermining Western backing for Ukraine. Finnish security chief assesses Russia’s core goal is weakening Western backing for Ukraine via potential sabotage and intimidation, while stating Finland is not a top Russian priority.
Rheinmetall sending prototypes of 100km shells to Ukraine. Rheinmetall boosting output of artillery ammunition, sending Ukraine prototypes of 100 km range shells along with hundreds of thousands regular rounds in 2024.
International
Polish FM: Much better to spend the money on protecting Ukraine than on then having to rebuild it. Poland’s FM Sikorski says it’s better to fund protecting Ukraine’s infrastructure now rather than having to rebuild it after the war; and he supports Macron’s strategic ambiguity on deploying NATO troops in Ukraine.
European agencies sound alarm over Russian sabotage plots, FT says. Three European intelligence agencies warn Russia is plotting increased sabotage across the continent, including bombings and infrastructure attacks, as per FT.
Macron advocates strategic ambiguity in French troop decisions for Ukraine. Macron advocates for strategic ambiguity about a possibility of French military involvement in Ukraine, emphasizing it as crucial for deterring Russian aggression and enhancing European security.
Russia recruited hundreds of Cubans to fight against Ukraine. Facing mounting losses in Ukraine, Russia has recruited hundreds of Cuban nationals by offering lucrative salaries and prospects of Russian citizenship to bolster its invasion forces.
US security adviser says $ 61 bn aid will enable Ukraine’s counteroffensive in 2025. Jake Sullivan says $61 billion in US military aid will enable Ukraine to prepare for a counteroffensive next year intended to halt further Russian territorial gains and reclaim lost ground.
Humanitarian and social impact
Russia hits central Kharkiv with three gliding bombs, injuring at least ten civilians. Russia has bombarded Kharkiv again with three aerial bombs, injuring at least 10 civilians. The city is continuously targeted since 2022. Today’s attack targeted residential areas in the Shevchenkivskyi district.
Russia moves to draft locals in seized parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast for war. Russia will forcibly conscript remaining Ukrainians in occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast into military service, part of broader Russification efforts like passportization, per UK intelligence.
Political and legal developments
Returning Russians contribute up to 1/3 of Russian GDP growth – Bloomberg. Estimates suggest that around 1 million people left Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, but the Kremlin claims that half of those who fled have already returned.
New developments
Organizer of torture chambers in occupied Berdiansk dies in car blast. Yevgeny Ananyevsky, who reportedly set up torture chambers for Ukrainian prisoners at Berdiansk Penal Colony No. 77 in occupied southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, has been eliminated, per Ukrainian intelligence.
Russian losses
As of 05 May 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:
- Personnel: 474260 (+860)
- Tanks: 7375 (+9)
- APV: 14179 (+18)
- Artillery systems: 12212 (+21)
- MLRS: 1057 (+1)
- Anti-aircraft systems: 790 (+2)
- Aircraft: 349 (+1)
- Helicopters: 325
- UAV: 9636 (+25)
- Cruise missiles : 2147 (+1)
- Warships/boats: 26
- Submarines: 1
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 16418 (+37)
Read the daily review for 5 May 2024 here.
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