Russo-Ukrainian war, day 811: Front lines shift as Ukraine counters Russia’s renewed offensives

Exclusive

The revolution that refused to be crushed: how Ukraine’s Euromaidan defied Russia’s subterfuge. While the presence of FSB agents on the streets of Kyiv during the Euromaidan protests was a chilling reminder of Russia’s determination to maintain its grip on Ukraine, it was just one piece of a much larger puzzle – a campaign of interference that included everything from disinformation and sabotage to plans for an outright invasion.

Why Ukraine’s fight is key to defeating Russia-China-North Korea alliance. Defense expert Mykhailo Samus warns that Ukraine’s defeat by Russia would critically strengthen an aggressive bloc of China, North Korea, and Iran.

Military

ISW: Ukrainian defenses tested as Russians target bridges in Vovchansk. Russian forces’ swift progress in Vovchansk, coupled with the destruction of key bridges, suggests a focus on establishing a buffer zone rather than pushing deeper, the experts suggest.

Police: Russians likely shot two volunteers in Vovchansk. Two volunteers went missing and were likely shot, one potentially killed, by Russian forces while attempting an evacuation in Vovchansk, police said.

Battles rage: Ukrainian forces continue defending Kharkiv front amid surge in Russian attacks. Intense fighting persists along multiple fronts in Ukraine, with significant enemy activity concentrated on the Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, and Pokrovsk fronts.

Gen. Budanov: Russia may launch an offensive on Sumy Oblast. Ukraine’s military, grappling with troop shortages in Kharkiv Oblast’s north, is bracing for a possible Russian offensive targeting Sumy Oblast, according to Ukrainian military intelligence chief General Budanov.

Media: Fuel train derailed after drone attack in Russia’s Volgograd Oblast. An overnight drone attack in Russia’s Volgograd Oblast caused a freight train derailment at Kotluban station, igniting two fuel carriages and disrupting railway operations, as per media reports.

As of 14 May 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 485430 (+1400)
• Tanks: 7496 (+11)
• APV: 14460 (+43)
• Artillery systems: 12515 (+28)
• MLRS: 1070
• Anti-aircraft systems: 798 (+1)
• Aircraft: 351 (+1)
• Helicopters: 325
• UAV: 9985 (+49)
• Cruise missiles: 2197
• Warships/boats: 26
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 16907 (+29)

Intelligence and technology

Australia pledges high-speed Sentinel 830R boats for Ukraine in a $66 million package. As part of the $66,2 million package, Australia is sending Ukraine Sentinel 830R high-density polyethylene rigid inflatable boats for riverine/maritime missions.

UK intel: Russia unable to capture Kharkiv City without deploying more forces. Russia’s attacking Kharkiv Oblast to divert Ukraine elsewhere but likely doesn’t have enough forces currently deployed to capture Kharkiv city, per UK intelligence.

International

Kyiv seeks support from 40 global universities ahead of peace talks. As tensions escalate with Russia, Ukraine seeks to receive more support before the upcoming Global Peace Summit.

Poland increases intelligence budget amid rising Russian threat. In response to mounting concerns over Russian aggression, Poland is ramping up its defenses.

Germany’s Scholz joins Nordic nations in calling for more military aid to Ukraine. Germany’s Scholz, alongside Nordic leaders, calls for ramping up military support, especially air defense systems, to aid Ukraine against Russia’s offensive.

Ukrinform: Zelenskyy told Blinken Ukraine needs two Patriots to protect Kharkiv Oblast skies.

Humanitarian and social impact

Russia kills on average two kids daily in Ukraine since 2022 – UNICEF. UN verified at least 1,993 child casualties in Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, admitting that the actual toll is probably much higher.

Ukraine weathers the $660 million Polish border blockade with new maritime channels. The Polish border blockade temporarily led to Ukraine’s export/import losses of $660 million, but Ukraine’s National Bank says a new maritime corridor helps compensate for losses and restore trade.

Political and legal developments

Protests, brawls as Georgia adopts Russian-style “foreign agents” law. Adoption is expected to have a chilling effect on both civil society and Georgia’s Eurointegration.

UK’s Shapps says UK stands firm on Ukraine support, dismisses peace deal speculation. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps assured that Britain would never pressure Ukraine to surrender its territory, emphasizing that such a decision lies solely with the Ukrainian government, despite the reports that a UK Cabinet member discussed a potential peace deal with former US President Donald Trump.

Ukraine denies Russian claims of a spoiled 2022 peace deal with Russia. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba denied Russian propaganda narratives that Ukraine allegedly rejected a peace deal with Russia in spring 2022 under UK pressure.

FT: Moldova to sign security pact with EU next week. Moldova, amid Russian warnings, will sign a security pact with the EU to enhance military exercises, intelligence sharing, and weapons procurement, the FT says.

New developments

Reuters: Blinken visits Ukraine to show US solidarity amid Russian onslaught. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken came to Ukraine after the US approved a $61 billion military aid package for Ukraine to bolster its defense as the Ukrainian army faces shortages in troop numbers and artillery shells amid intensified Russian attacks in eastern and northeastern Ukraine.

SBU says it prevented 9 May Kyiv bomb attacks by Russian saboteurs. SBU says its counterintelligence prevented Russian GRU-planned terror attacks in Kyiv on 9 May, arresting saboteur agents planting disguised explosives.

Read the daily review for Mon 13 May 2024, here