Russo-Ukrainian war, day 848: US to expedite Patriot and NASAMS deliveries to Ukraine

Exclusive

Ukraine punches above its weight, destroying $ 98.7 bn of Russian military equipment. The $300 billion in frozen Russian assets could be the game-changer Ukraine needs to expand its already impressive feat of Russian armor with smaller resources.

Military

HUR: Ukrainian drone hits four Russian “Tuna” boats in single operation. The boats were targeted near Crimea’s Chornomorsk.

Mission Impossible: Ukrainian Air Force soldier downs Russian cruise missile with machine gun. In a remarkable display of skill and courage, Serhii, the Ukrainian soldier, successfully intercepted an enemy missile with a machine gun, redirecting it from its course towards Kyiv Oblast.

UK Intelligence: Russia struggles to defend assets in Crimea amid Ukrainian attacks. UK Intelligence reports that Ukrainian strikes on Russian airfields, such as Mozdok, Akhtubinsk, and Morozovsk, have likely forced Russia to disperse its aircraft further from the front lines, resulting in increased airframe and crew fatigue.

ISW: Ukrainian liberated Tykhe village east of Kharkiv’s Vovchansk, advanced elsewhere in the area. Amid Russian offensives in northern Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainian forces recaptured Tykhe village east of Vovchansk and made advances near the border northeast of Kharkiv City against Russian forces.

Two Russian oil depots on fire in Russia’s Tambov Oblast and Adygea after drone strikes (video). Drone attacks targeted Russian oil storage facilities in Tambov and Adygea regions, over 300-400km from Ukraine’s border, igniting fires as part of an ongoing campaign to disrupt Russian fuel logistics.

As of 20 Jun 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 530920 (+1170)
• Tanks: 7987 (+3)
• APV: 15337 (+18)
• Artillery systems: 14052 (+45)
• MLRS: 1105 (+1)
• Anti-aircraft systems: 859 (+2)
• Aircraft: 359
• Helicopters: 326
• UAV: 11260 (+39)
• Cruise missiles: 2298 (+1)
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 19134 (+56)

Intelligence and technology

WSJ: Ukraine to receive Patriot and NASAMS interceptors directly from US production line in next 16 months, sources say. The Biden administration will expedite the delivery of air-defense interceptors to Ukraine by halting shipments to allied nations, prioritizing Ukraine’s urgent defense needs amid ongoing Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure and the Kharkiv offensive.

Rheinmetall received largest order in company history for supply of ammunition, including to Ukraine. The main purpose of the order is to replenish the stocks held by the German army and its allies, as well as to provide support to Ukraine in its defense.

FT: US to redirect Patriot air defense orders to Ukraine until it has enough to defend itself. Systems destined for other countries will be diverted to help Kyiv protect its cities and critical infrastructure, with the US government set to halt all open orders until Ukraine has enough to defend itself from Russia’s air attacks.

Ukraine inks defense deals with French firms at Eurosatory exhibition. At the Eurosatory 2024 defense exhibition, Ukrainian companies signed six agreements with French firms for joint ventures, service centers, drone production, radar navigation systems, and armored vehicle maintenance.

US NatSec Advisor Sullivan: F-16s to be based in Ukraine, not abroad. According to Sullivan, the bilateral security agreement between Washington and Kyiv also reinforced this as part of the plan to create additional combat capabilities in Ukraine.

White House confirms Ukraine can attack areas in Russia adjacent to Kharkiv, Sumy oblasts with US weapons. A US senior official confirms authorization for Ukrainian armed forces to strike Russian military positions just inside Russia near Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts.

International

Russia plans to undermine next Global Peace Summit, says Zelenskyy’s chief aide. The Russians are displeased with the support Ukraine receives from the West and the Global South.

Lithuania donates transformers and equipment to Ukraine as Russian strikes on energy system persist. This assistance comes as Russian ballistic missile strikes have caused significant damage to half of Ukraine’s energy system.

Reuters: After signing Russia-North Korea defense pact, Putin visits Vietnam. Meanwhile, a US Embassy condemns the platform given by Hanoi to Putin to promote Russia’s war against Ukraine.

South Korea condemns Russia-North Korea defense pact, considers arming Ukraine. In response to the Moscow-Pyongyang security pact, Seoul is considering weapon supplies to Ukraine.

NATO members debating what commitment to give on Ukraine joining alliance at upcoming summit. US and German officials have proposed that the alliance pledge that Ukraine has a “bridge” to NATO membership, rather than an “irreversible path” as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in April, in language that is favored by the UK and several Eastern and Central European nations.

Reuters: Germany holds up passage of new EU sanctions package on Russia. Germany’s hesitation was due in part to an internal disagreement between its foreign ministry and the chancellor’s office, diplomats and a source familiar with the matter said.

White House: Putin’s North Korea visit aimed at building a coalition. A senior White House official has warned that Russia is seeking to form an alliance with pariah nations like North Korea, Iran, and Syria as it faces isolation over its invasion of Ukraine.

Humanitarian and social impact

Ukraine’s culture ministry explores how art helps cope with trauma amid war. The Ministry of Culture and Information Policy is collaborating with the World Health Organization to investigate how the government can use art to support the recovery and reintegration of individuals who have experienced trauma due to war.

Ukraine downs 5/9 missile, all 27 drones as Russia targets energy grid during nighttime attack. Russia launched massive overnight drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure, damaging facilities in Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Kyiv oblasts. Ukraine says it has destroyed most missiles and all drones.

Ukraine repatriates 600 of at least 20,000 children abducted by Russia. Last year, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for President Vladimir Putin and Russia’s children’s rights commissioner, Maria Lvova-Belova, accusing them of illegally deporting Ukrainian children to Russia.

Political and legal developments

IAEA says Ukraine advances nuclear security amid Russia’s war. Ukraine has been praised by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for fulfilling nuclear non-proliferation obligations amid Russia’s war.

Read our earlier daily review here