Russo-Ukrainian War, day 859: Ukraine faces potential default, while German Foreign Minister names support to Ukraine as investment in European security
The Economist reports that Ukraine faces a potential default as the debt freeze is set to expire on 1 August, with only a fraction of international assistance being provided as direct cash support. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stressed that supporting Ukraine is an investment in European security rather than a "charity gesture".
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 | Lessons from Aceh: how Ukraine can avoid reconstruction pitfalls. Ukraine’s massive rebuilding effort can learn from past disasters, according to experts who worked on Indonesia’s post-tsunami reconstruction. They emphasize the importance of human oversight in data management and warn against over-planning that could delay critical projects. |
Military
Frontline report: Ukraine chipping away at Russian positions in preparation for upcoming offensive. Ukrainian forces are persisting with their audacious raids against positions of the Russian Armed Forces in and around Hlyboke, aiming to realign the frontline in preparation for future operations in this area.
ISW: Putin’s war plan relies on slow, steady territorial gains. A new report from the Institute for the Study of War suggests that Vladimir Putin’s strategy in Ukraine relies on slow but steady territorial gains, potentially prolonging the war indefinitely.
As of 01 July 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:
- Personnel: 543810 (+1110)
- Tanks: 8099 (+19)
- APV: 15550 (+26)
- Artillery systems: 14599 (+66)
- MLRS: 1111 (+1)
- Anti-aircraft systems: 874 (+1)
- Aircraft: 360
- Helicopters: 326
- UAV: 11620 (+36)
- Cruise missiles : 2333 (+2)
- Warships/boats: 28
- Submarines: 1
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 19713 (+70)
Intelligence and technology
Politico: Ukraine’s ‘people’s satellite’ wreaks havoc on Russian targets. Ukraine’s crowd-funded spy satellite has enabled Ukraine to destroy thousands of Russian military targets, according to Ukrainian officials.
UK intel: Ukraine counterattacked in Klishchiivka, while Russia is focused on Avdiivka-Pokrovsk. According to British intelligence, Ukraine is making tactical gains in Klishchiivka, while the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector remains the probable Russian main effort.
International
Zelenskyy renews “high-level contact” with Gambia after 20-year pause, thanks for Peace Summit support. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that in a recent phone call with Gambian President Adama Barrow they discussed cooperation on peace restoration and food security and he welcomed Gambian students back to safe oblasts of Ukraine for educational programs.
German Foreign Minister: Ukraine aid is not “charity gesture” but rather “investment” in European security. Speaking at a conference on Germany’s National Security Strategy, Annalena Baerbock stressed that the country is committed to protecting “every square centimeter” of Europe, emphasizing that supporting Ukraine is essential to this goal.
Türkiye, Romania, Bulgaria start clearing Black Sea of mines to help Ukrainian grain exports. Türkiye, Romania, and Bulgaria have initiated a joint mine-hunting operation in the Black Sea, marking a significant step towards ensuring the safety of Ukrainian grain exports.
Ukraine informed European Commission that Poland stopped entry of Ukrainian trucks. The Ukrainian side has appealed both to the European Commission as well as the Polish Ministry of Infrastructure about the situation, with Polish colleagues assuring that they are trying to solve the problem.
Humanitarian and social impact
Russia illegally holds under arrest over 14,000 Ukrainian citizens – Ombudsman. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said that that efforts to secure their return proving exceptionally challenging.
Russia hits Dnipro with ballistic missiles, 7 injured, including a teen. Nikopol district also targeted with drones & artillery. Earlier strikes on Dnipro killed 1, injured 13
Bulgarian Orthodox Church elects pro-Kremlin Metropolitan Daniil as new Patriarch . In 2023, the newly elected Bulgarian Patriarch Daniil expressed his support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, drawing criticism from some clergy members.
Theater play Caligula about tyranny to represent Ukraine at France’s Avignon performing arts festival. Ukrainian production of Caligula, based on French writer Albert Camus’ interpretation of the Roman emperor, delves into questions of tyranny, freedom, dignity, and the consequences of unlimited power, resonating with Ukraine’s ongoing fight for independence, according to Ukrainian director Ivan Uryvskyi.
Political and legal developments
Ukrainian security forces say they detain plotters planning to overthrow Ukrainian government . The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) detained several individuals plotting to seize the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) in Kyiv, aiming to remove the current military-political leadership of Ukraine.
Zelenskyy: Negotiations with Russia are only possible with mediators. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also emphasized the need for advanced technology and long-range weapons to counter Russian aggression in a recent interview.
The Economist: Ukraine faces potential default as debt freeze is set to expire in August. Despite substantial military aid and earmarked funds from allies, only a fraction of the assistance is being provided as direct cash support to the Ukrainian government.
New developments
Chairman Munich Security Conference: Only NATO membership will bring long-term peace to Ukraine. The former German UN ambassador and current chairman of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, advocates maximum toughness against Russia.
Read our earlier daily review here
