Russo-Ukrainian War, day 863: Orbán meets Putin in Moscow after proposing ceasefire in Kyiv

Exclusive

Rheinmetall’s Ukrainian expansion is building a defense industry powerhouse. German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall is investing heavily in Ukraine, setting up joint production facilities for armored vehicles, ammunition, and air defense systems. The move aims to bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities and position Rheinmetall as the “number one option for the Ukrainian army.”

Military

Russian guided bombs strike Selidove, Donetsk Oblast: 5 killed. While the bombs primarily hit industrial areas, residential zones were also affected.

Frontline report: Russians suffer heavy losses of troops and equipment near Chasiv Yar, fail to advance. The current assault force on Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast can only last for a few months before being exhausted and withdrawn from battle due to ill-prepared infantry, some with as little as a week and a half of training, and heavy losses of tanks and armored vehicles due to effective Ukrainian drone attacks.

Forbes: Russia lost up to 100,000 troops to capture single Chasiv Yar district. The Russian military has reportedly lost 99,000 troops since the Chasiv Yar campaign began in April.

Ukrainian commander says Russian forces adapt tactics to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses. In June, Ukraine successfully intercepted 94% of enemy drones and 64% of incoming missiles. Despite the high interception rate, the missiles that hit their targets caused significant damage

Drones hit Russia’s Rostov Oblast, Krasnodar Krai, injuring 6 people. Accordign to the Russian Telegram channels, the attack injured 6 people, including 2 children. There is damage to infrastructure.

ISW: Putin is demanding that Ukraine effectively surrender in advance of any ceasefire. Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected meaningful ceasefire negotiations for Ukraine, instead demanding the country’s “irreversible” demilitarization, according to a new report from the Institute for the Study of War.

As of 05 Jul 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 548580 (+1110)
    • Tanks: 8142 (+10)
    • APV: 15611 (+11)
    • Artillery systems: 14831 (+54)
    • MLRS: 1115
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 878
    • Aircraft: 360
    • Helicopters: 326
    • UAV: 11751 (+57)
    • Cruise missiles : 2342
    • Warships/boats: 28
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 19977 (+54)

Intelligence and technology

Ukrainian government approves domestic drone procurement via Prozorro. Minister Fedorov assured that sensitive information related to drone procurement will be secure.

Latvia to transfer over 2500 drones worth EUR 4 million to Ukraine in July. Seven Latvian companies are set to produce more than 2,500 drones for Ukraine, with deliveries scheduled throughout July, according to a recent announcement from Latvia’s Defense Ministry.

Germany bolsters Ukraine’s air defense against Russian missiles with third Patriot system. As Russia persists in its bombardment of Ukrainian civilians and energy infrastructure across various oblasts, German Ambassador to Ukraine announced that Germany delivered a third Patriot air defense system to Ukraine and that the Ukrainian military personnel completed their training to operate it in Germany.

The Insider: Leaked documents expose Kremlin’s disinformation campaigns in West. Russia’s foreign intelligence agency Project Kylo aims to exploit fear and uncertainty to sway Western audiences against their governments and support for Ukraine, according to leaked documents.

International

Hungarian Prime Minister Orban officially arrives in Moscow. The European Union has explicitly stated that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban does not represent the bloc during his visit to Moscow.

Ukraine rebukes Orban’s Moscow visit: “No agreements without us”. Orban’s Moscow trip followed his meeting with Zelenskyy in Kyiv, where he proposed a ceasefire and negotiations with Putin.

Orban meets Putin: Ukraine and Russia’s positions “very far apart”. Before arriving in Moscow, Orban visited Kyiv, proposing a ceasefire followed by peace talks.

European Commission, Baltic PMs question Hungary’s EU presidency role after Moscow meeting. Baltic leaders have strongly criticized Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s visit to Moscow, calling it a blow to EU unity and trust in Hungary’s EU Council presidency.

“No Minsk-3”: Stoltenberg rejects further Ukraine land-for-peace deals with Russia. Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 agreements, signed in 2014 and 2015, failed to stop Russian aggression in Ukraine.

Stoltenberg: Ukraine aid “most urgent” at upcoming NATO summit. However, Kyiv’s goal is to secure a formal invitation to join the alliance.

Stoltenberg hopes Ukraine to become NATO member in next 10 years. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expresses hope for Ukraine’s alliance membership within 10 years, while calling for increased military support to Kyiv.

Zelenskyy unveils plans for “unprecedented 100-year pact” with UK. On 12 January, Ukraine and Britain signed a bilateral 10-year security agreement.

UK’s Labour party to continue supporting Ukraine in war against Russia and on its way to NATO. The leader of the Labour Party Keir Starmer, who is the new Prime Minister of the UK, personally visited Ukraine in 2023, witnessing the destruction caused by the Russian invasion in the liberated areas of Kyiv Oblast and emphasized Britain’s resolute support for Ukraine.

Zelenskyy thanks Sunak, welcomes Starmer as new British PM. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has congratulated Keir Starmer on Labour’s election victory, emphasizing continued UK-Ukraine cooperation.

Scholz: Putin must not expect EU solidarity with Ukraine to weaken. He reiterated the clear stance of the EU, which is the condemnation of Russia’s imperialist war.

Humanitarian and social impact

Starvation, beatings, nails ripped out: Russia systematically tortures Ukrainian POWs till death . Death certificates of Ukrainian defenders whose bodies were returned from Russian captivity usually state tuberculosis or heart attack as a cause of death; however, their bodies show visible signs of torture and starvation, and witness accounts of cellmates who survived Russian captivity prove inhumane treatment and humiliation.

Ukrainian surgeons perform a unique heart operation on wounded soldier . Ukrainian soldier sustained a severe chest wound near Bakhmut that left a hole in his coronary artery, but a team of specialists at the Amosov Institute repaired the injury without opening the chest, using an endovascular approach and intracoronary ultrasound guidance.

Political and legal developments

YouTube blocks channels of pro-Russian artists sanctioned by EU. Sanctioned by the EU for undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty, several Russian singers and artists used YouTube to spread Russian propaganda, prompting the Lithuanian Radio and Television Commission to demand the removal of their official accounts.

Ukrainian court sentences woman to life in prison for aiding Russian missile strikes. A local woman from Cherkasy was handed a life sentence for providing precise coordinates of military targets to Russian special services (FSB), leading to deadly missile strikes in the oblast, while she also justified Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and glorified Russian forces, particularly the “Wagner” group, according to the Cherkasy Oblast Prosecutor’s Office.

Read our earlier daily review here.