Russo-Ukrainian War, day 909: Ukraine bans Moscow-affiliated churches in historic step

Exclusive

Expert warns: “Azerbaijani” gas may mask Russian energy’s EU return. As China shatters the Kremlin’s dream to make up for lost gas exports to the EU, an unexpected new player enters the European gas chessboard. However, Baku’s gas offer is but a Trojan horse, warns energy expert Mykhailo Gonchar.

Kursk Oblast: Where Russia’s “historical lands” argument falls apart. As Ukrainian troops advance into Kursk Oblast, they encounter an unexpected ally: history itself. Ironically, Russia’s justification for invading Ukraine crumbles on its own soil.

Military

Politico: Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast strengthens Kyiv’s position in pursuing peace talks. Ukraine’s military advance into Russia’s Kursk Oblast is bolstering Kyiv’s leverage in seeking peace negotiations, potentially using a framework similar to the 2022 Black Sea grain deal.

Massive fire engulfs Russian oil depot after Ukrainian drone strike, spreads over 10,000 square meters. The blaze, which has severely disrupted operations at the depot supplying Russia’s military, continues to send thick black smoke into the sky, prompting a state of emergency in the Proletarsk district.

Frontline report: Conflicting Russian command structures fuel friendly fire accidents in Kursk Oblast. The Russian military’s chaotic command structure, lack of coordination, and communication breakdowns in Kursk Oblast have led to a series of disastrous friendly fire incidents.

Ukrainian Defense Forces control over 1,250 square kilometers and 92 settlements in Kursk Oblast, says Zelenskyy. The Kursk incursion has effectively disrupted Russian military positions and created a buffer zone along the Russia-Ukraine border.

Ukraine destroys Russian pontoon crossing in Kursk Oblast with drone strikes. The operation, which took place near the village of Glushkovo, disrupted a key supply route and added pressure on Russian forces already struggling with recent bridge losses.

ISW: Russians advance in Donbas as Ukraine gains ground in Kursk. Russian troops make progress in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, focusing on key areas like Siversk and Chasiv Yar. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continue to advance in Kursk Oblast, destroying bridges and engaging in clashes near the international border, ISW says.

AP: Belarus bolsters military presence on Ukrainian border. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko ordered nearly one-third of the country’s military to the Ukrainian border, citing alleged Ukrainian troop movements.

Ukrainian forces control 20% of Donetsk’s New York settlement, sources say. UP military sources refute Russian reports on the fall of Donetsk’s Niu-York or New York as Ukraine controls 20% of the settlement in the north, while the Russians advance using large reserves.

US reaffirms support for Ukraine’s military actions in Russia. The US continues supporting Ukraine’s military operations in Russia, the Pentagon says. Ukrainian forces aim to damage Russian logistics, drain reserves, and create a buffer zone in Kursk.

As of 20 August 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 601800 (+1330)
• Tanks: 8518 (+5)
• APV: 16521 (+26)
• Artillery systems: 17156 (+52)
• MLRS: 1166 (+1)
• Anti-aircraft systems: 926
• Aircraft: 367
• Helicopters: 328
• UAV: 13864 (+55)
• Cruise missiles: 2438 (+1)
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 23142 (+95)

Intelligence and technology

Germany to deliver four IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine in 2024. The systems, which are part of Germany’s military aid to help Ukraine counter Russia’s aggression, include both short-range and medium-range models, enhancing Ukraine’s ability to intercept enemy aircraft, drones, and missiles.

Ukrainian defenders receive intensive tactical medicine course from UK instructors. Ukraine’s military learned to treat severe injuries and evacuate the wounded under fire.

Kasparov urges Scholz to boost Ukraine aid instead of cutting, demands Taurus transfer approval. Ex-chess champion Garry Kasparov urged German Chancellor Scholz to reverse military aid cuts to Ukraine, advocated for approving Taurus missile supplies, and stressed Germany’s duty to prevent another European tragedy.

International

Frozen Russian asset proceeds to supply Ukraine with ammo via Czech initiative. A portion of frozen Russian assets in the EU will fund ammunition supplies to Ukraine within the Czech ammunition initiative, the Czech Defense Minister says.

West can “easily” afford Ukraine aid to avoid much greater future costs, economist says. Western nations have the economic strength to support Ukraine against Russia’s aggression, while inadequate aid risks higher future costs and global instability, argues Swedish economist Lars Calmfors.

Humanitarian and social impact

Donetsk police to search for parents refusing to evacuate their children amid constant Russian shelling. Acting head of the city’s military administration, Yuriy Tretyak, has urged residents to leave immediately as the situation deteriorates.

Ternopil industrial site struck; Ukraine intercepts most Russian drones and missiles during night attack. Last night, Russia launched missiles and drones at Ukraine. Air defenses intercepted 25/26 Shahed suicide drones, and three missiles. A Ternopil industrial facility was hit, causing a fire. Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Vinnytsia oblasts report interceptions.

Political and legal developments

Parliament bans Moscow-affiliated churches in Ukraine. Ukraine’s parliament passed a law banning Russian-affiliated religious organizations. The law permits courts to suspend these organizations’ activities, giving them nine months to sever ties with Moscow.

Ukrainian tractor driver sentenced to 10 years for “espionage” in St. Petersburg. Questions surround the case of a Ukrainian man convicted of espionage in Russia, as details of his detention remain unclear.

Read our earlier daily review here