Russo-Ukrainian war, day 925: Ukraine’s new Palianytsia drone threatens Russian rear positions

Exclusive

Airfield assassin: Ukraine’s Palianytsia drone threatens Russian rear. Its precise features remain classified, but experts allow giving an educated guess about Ukraine’s newest mysterious weapon

Germans want Ukraine to win – but not Scholz, says foreign policy expert. The rise of populist parties in Germany’s recent elections signals frustration with the federal government, not a demand to end military aid to Ukraine. Dr. Benjamin Tallis argues that Chancellor Scholz’s cautious stance on aid contrasts with public opinion, which strongly supports a Ukrainian victory.

Military

Zelenskyy: Kursk incursion diverts 60,000 Russian soldiers from other parts of front lines. The Ukrainian president told NBC News that the Kursk operation successfully redirected Russian forces from other parts of the front lines, easing pressure on Ukrainian defenses.

Frontline report: Russians make significant advances toward Pokrovsk amid heavy fighting. Russians advance on Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, overwhelming Ukrainian defenses with massive troop concentrations. High Russian casualties were reported in intense assaults. Ukrainian forces face critical situation due to being vastly outnumbered and experiencing command structure issues.

UK intel: Russian casualties remain high as capability constraints reduce ability to exploit tactical success. The military intelligence agency of the United Kingdom argues that the increase in casualty rate is almost certainly due to Ukraine’s Kursk operation and continued pressure on the Pokrovsk axis, as Russia continues to rely on mass to mitigate their lack of personnel and equipment capability.

Ukraine repels Russia’s massive nighttime attack involving 78 drones as Belarus downs several UAVs in its airspace. Russia launched 78 Shahed drones and one Iskander-M missile at Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted 60 drones across 12 oblasts, while other drones crashed, and some returned to Russia and Belarus.

As of 5 SEP 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 621550 (+1200)
• Tanks: 8624 (+6)
• APV: 16869 (+21)
• Artillery systems: 17725 (+31)
• MLRS: 1177
• Anti-aircraft systems: 940
• Aircraft: 368
• Helicopters: 328
• UAV: 14658 (+42)
• Cruise missiles: 2587 (+7)
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 24044 (+37)

Intelligence and technology

NBC News: Zelenskyy says details of F-16 crash in Ukraine to be revealed after investigation completion. The crash, which resulted in the death of pilot Oleksii Mes, is being thoroughly examined before any further information is released.

Romania plans to send Patriot air defense system to Ukraine. The transfer is part of a broader commitment by NATO to provide Ukraine with advanced defensive equipment to counter Russia’s aerial attacks.

Russia uses old ASML machines to produce microchips for weapons against Ukraine. Russian weapons manufacturers have found a way to circumvent international sanctions, using outdated ASML chip-making machines to produce components for their war effort against Ukraine.

Kirby says US upholds ATACMS missile restrictions for Ukraine, claiming 90% Russian aircraft beyond range. Kirby reaffirms policy restricting Ukraine’s use of US-supplied ATACMS missiles for strikes inside Russia. He condemned recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, but claims 90% of Russian aircraft used for strikes are beyond the systems’ range.

International

Swedish government approves major energy support for Ukraine. The initiative includes providing gas turbines and strengthening defenses around energy facilities to minimize the impact of ongoing strikes.

Germany fears Russian defeat, says foreign policy expert. Dr. Benjamin Tallis claims Berlin fears a Ukrainian win could destabilize Russia.

No Taurus for Ukraine while Scholz reigns, claims foreign policy expert. Dr. Benjamin Tallis asserts the German chancellery seeks a quick war end to preserve pre-2022 business interests, despite widespread public support for Ukraine’s victory.

Zelenskyy to present “Victory Plan” to Biden, Harris, and Trump. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy says he will share Ukraine’s “Victory Plan” with US President Biden and presidential candidates Harris and Trump. The plan, dependent on US support, will guide Ukraine’s strategy during and after the war.

Some $6.2 billion in Ukraine aid at risk as US fiscal deadline approaches. American NGOs are pressing the State Department to utilize $6.2 billion in remaining Ukraine aid before it expires, as the fiscal year ends on 30 September.

ISW: Russia relies on India, Serbia, China to evade sanctions. A leak reveals Russia’s plan to spend $1 billion on critical electronics, potentially leveraging Indian facilities. Meanwhile, at the Eastern Economic Forum, Putin met with Serbian and Chinese officials to discuss trade and cooperation.

EU deplores Georgia’s “family values” laws, warns of discrimination risks. The EU has condemned Georgia’s new “family values” law, warning it could lead to human rights violations and jeopardize Georgia’s path to EU membership. The law bans transgender transitions and same-sex adoptions, drawing parallels to Russia’s restrictive legislation.

Humanitarian and social impact

IAEA expands monitoring to include Ukrainian power substations for nuclear safety. Ukraine’s chief nuclear inspector announced that the IAEA will expand its monitoring to key Ukrainian substations, not just nuclear plants, amid ongoing Russian air assaults on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

Political and legal developments

The Guardian: New UK Labour government pushes for quick creation of special tribunal to hold Russia accountable for crimes against Ukraine. The new Labour government in the UK is pushing to accelerate the creation of a special tribunal to hold Russian leaders accountable for their aggression against Ukraine, with plans to discuss the tribunal’s formation at an upcoming Council of Europe meeting in Vilnius.

Sybiha becomes Ukraine’s new foreign minister as the ministerial reshuffle continues. Ukraine’s Parliament has appointed Andrii Sybiha as new foreign minister, replacing Dmytro Kuleba. Sybiha, a career diplomat since 1997, previously served as First Deputy Minister and Ambassador to Türkiye.

New developments

Russia conducts large-scale psychological warfare in Europe, FBI dossier reveals. The FBI-obtained documents reveal Russia’s extensive disinformation campaign aimed at winning over Europeans’ hearts and minds, which entails manipulating UK, Italian, French and German officials, influencers and journalists.

Read our earlier daily review here.