Russo-Ukrainian war, day 927: Ukrainians plant flag in New York, challenging Russian control

Exclusive

Why Zelenskyy sacked his top diplomat and what we can expect from Sybiha. Experts say Kuleba was too diplomatic for the president. But will Zelenskyy’s aggressive style deliver in foreign policy?

Why did Ukraine reshuffle half its government amid war?. The shake-up, justified as a need for “new energy,” comes as Ukraine faces critical challenges in its conflict with Russia and pursuit of Western support.

Military

Frontline report: Russia’s Pyrrhic victory in the battle for Vuhledar. Russian forces claim Prechistivka, but Ukraine’s tactical withdrawal may have set a trap.

Ukrainian troops raise flag in New York, Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian forces have reasserted their presence in New York, a hotly disputed town in eastern Ukraine.

Russian drone debris lands by Ukrainian parliament. Kyiv city officials believe the building might have been a target in the attack.

Forbes: Ukrainian brigades launch targeted counterattacks to defend Pokrovsk. The once seemingly inevitable Russian conquest of Pokrovsk now appears increasingly uncertain.

Kyiv: “We’ve hit N. Korean missile depot in Russia, Iranian missiles next”. Ukrainian drones strike Russian ammo depot in Voronezh Oblast, allegedly destroying North Korean missiles.

None of Russia’s 67 Shahed drones managed to hit during overnight attack on Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense shot down 58 drones. The rest were lost due to electronic warfare systems or left Ukrainian-controlled airspace.

Drones attack ammo depot in Russia’s Voronezh Oblast, causing massive explosions. Local authorities declared an emergency situation and evacuation.

As of 7 SEP 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 623990 (+1270)
    • Tanks: 8632 (+1)
    • APV: 16878
    • Artillery systems: 17774 (+29)
    • MLRS: 1178
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 942
    • Aircraft: 368
    • Helicopters: 328
    • UAV: 14784 (+52)
    • Cruise missiles : 2588 (+1)
    • Warships/boats: 28
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 24171 (+55)

Intelligence and technology

US, UK spy chiefs praise Ukraine’s Kursk incursion, say West shouldn’t fear Russia’s nuclear threats. CIA Director Burns and MI6 Chief Moore commend Ukraine’s “audacious” incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast and stress the importance of sustained Western support. Burns says there was a “genuine risk” of Russia using tactical nukes in fall 2022.

No significant Russian military threat in Belarus, Ukrainian Border Service reports. In 2023, Russia maintained 12,000 troops in Belarus, which has its own military of about 50,000.

Canada announces delivery of rocket motors, warheads for Ukraine, training of pilots and more. This week, Ukrainian pilots arrived in Canada to begin fighter-lead-in-training.

Spain bolsters Ukraine’s defense with HAWK battery and joins IT and Maritime support coalitions. Spain has announced new support for Ukraine’s defense efforts, including the immediate donation of a HAWK anti-aircraft battery and joining two international coalitions backing Ukraine.

US and Ukraine collaborate on developing alternatives to Soviet-era air-defense systems. While specific details were not disclosed, the collaboration is likely aiming to localize the production of new air-defense missiles in Ukraine, which could substitute for the S-300 surface-to-air and R-27 air-to-air missiles.

US new military aid package for Ukraine includes ammunition for artillery and air defense. The package announced on 6 September 2024 also includes an unspecified number of M113 APCs, Bradley IFVs, boats, and infantry weapons.

Russia paid Iran with fighter jets and technology to receive ballistic missiles — ISW. This arms deal signifies a deepening strategic partnership between Tehran and Moscow as the two authoritarian regimes align.

Lithuania allocates EUR 10 million for the production of the Ukrainian “Palianytsia” jet drones to facilitate attacks on Russian territory. Palianytsia is part of Ukraine’s growing defense industry, which now needs more funding to continue production growth beyond the $7 billion Ukraine’s government has already contracted for.

International

Polish FM: “We may intercept Russian missiles to protect Ukrainian nuclear plants”. However, Sikorski stressed that this is his personal opinion and no official decisions have been made.

Ukraine’s new foreign minister holds first talks with US, German, and Romanian counterparts. Andriy Sybiha, previously Ukraine’s deputy Foreign Minister, was appointed as the new minister on 5 September during Ukraine’s government reshuffle.

US Defense Secretary Austin says Ukraine’s long-range strikes would not impact the war. His comments ignore how weapon systems and their engagement do affect Ukrainian capabilities and the course of the war, ISW notes.

Finland and Estonia say Ukraine should be allowed to attack targets inside Russia with Western weapons. “It aligns with both our values and interests that Ukraine wins this war and achieves a just and sustainable peace,” Finnish President Alexander Stubb said.

US “alarmed” by Iranian missile transfer to Russia. The United States has expressed deep concern over reports that Iran has delivered short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. Officials told WSJ Europe and the US are “working on a sanctions response to Iran’s move.”

Pentagon pledges to use all available funds to support Ukraine but doesn’t provide details as fiscal year ends. The Pentagon has reaffirmed its commitment to utilize all accessible funds to support Ukraine while leaving questions unanswered about the specific allocation of remaining aid as the US fiscal year draws to a close this September.

New developments

Ukraine’s exports surge 17.5% year-on-year in August 2024. Ukraine’s exports reached $3.2 billion in August, reflecting the successful unblocking of ports and gradual economic recovery.

Read our earlier daily review here.