Russo-Ukrainian war, day 930: Ukraine doubles weapons production, faces $12 billion military budget shortfall

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How EU’s €50 bn carrot drives Ukraine’s path to membership. Meet the Ukraine Facility, the EU’s primary support mechanism to stimulate Ukraine to align with EU standards

The dark truth behind NATO’s “fear of Russian escalation”. NATO frets over poking the Russian bear while its own paper tiger growls. Eastern allies demand action as Western powers reveal an Alliance scared of its own shadow.

Military

Ukrainian soldiers are holding their ground amid fierce battles in Kharkiv and Kupiansk fronts. On the Pokrovsk front, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 out of 14 Russian attacks today.

Russia attacks Ukraine with 46 explosive drones and two missiles, Ukraine downs 38 UAVs. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted 38 Russian Shahed drones, with three more turning back to Russia and occupied Luhansk Oblast, while two people were injured and infrastructure damaged in Uman, Cherkasy.

Frontline report: Ukraine reclaims high ground near Kharkiv’s Lyptsi, deploying “flamethrower” drones. In a counteroffensive near Lyptsi, Ukrainians reclaimed high ground using thermite UAVs, exposing Russian defensive weaknesses and showcasing Ukraine’s battlefield innovation.

Russia claims it downed 144 drones on their way to Moscow. Russia claims a large-scale drone attack on Moscow and surrounding regions, stating 144 drones were downed, three airports closed, and buildings damaged, while Ukraine has yet to comment on the attack

As of 10 SEP 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 627790 (+1380)
    • Tanks: 8640 (+1)
    • APV: 16925 (+19)
    • Artillery systems: 17880 (+50)
    • MLRS: 1180
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 942
    • Aircraft: 368
    • Helicopters: 328
    • UAV: 14933 (+36)
    • Cruise missiles : 2591 (+3)
    • Warships/boats: 28
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 24330 (+68)

Intelligence and technology

Ukrainian military faces $12 billion budget shortfall for 2024. Tax increases and internal borrowing are expected to cover the sum.

Russia plans to set up drone production in Uzbekistan. Drone to be appartently used in Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

Latvia sends specialized gear and equipment to Ukrainian forces. In a show of support for Ukraine, Latvia will donate a range of essential items to its military, including jackets, boots, drones, and hundreds of computers its forces.

Ukraine doubles weapons production in 2024, focuses on drones and shells, PM says. Prime Minister Shmyhal highlighted partnerships with international defense companies, the development of long-range systems, and the establishment of joint ventures as key components of this growth.

Ukraine launches domestic production of grenades. The massive production of F-1 and RGD-5 models of grenades is yet another step towards strategical autonomy in arms production.

International

EU supports Zelenskyy’s Peace Formula, insisting on Ukraine’s sovereignty in any peace deal. As reports circulate about a new German peace proposal for Ukraine, the EU remains firm in its position that any peace settlement must be based on respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty and international law.

US “not ruling out” allowing Ukraine to launch long-range strikes into Russia, Blinken tells Sky News. “We don’t. We never rule out. But when we rule in, we want to make sure it’s done in such a way that it can advance what the Ukrainians are trying to achieve,” Blinken said.

Biden to discuss with UK Prime Minister allowing Ukraine to strike deep into Russia. US President Joe Biden is set to meet with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on 13 September and will discuss allowing Ukrainian defense forces to conduct long-range strikes deep into Russian territory, according to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Ukrainian Canadian Congress calls for investigation into budget funding of “Russians at War” film. The Ukrainian Canadian Congress (UCC) has expressed deep concern over the screening of the film “Russians at War” at the Toronto International Film Festival and is calling for an investigation into its funding from the Canadian budget.

ISW: Russia’s diplomatic moves signal unwillingness for good-faith negotiations with Ukraine. Russian FM Lavrov’s latest diplomatic engagements aim to shape international peace mediation efforts in Russia’s war in Ukraine, while demonstrating Russia’s unwillingness for good-faith negotiations, according to ISW.

US “incredibly alarmed” by reported Iran missile transfers to Russia, but maintains Ukraine deep strike ban. The US State Dept is concerned over Iranian ballistic missile transfers to Russia, warns of consequences, but upholds limits on Ukraine’s deep strikes into Russia with US-supplied missiles.

Media: Scholz’s peace plan suggests Ukraine cede territory to Russia. Italian media reports on German Chancellor Scholz’s alleged Ukraine peace plan, involving potential territorial concessions, which Kyiv rejects, while Moscow remains open to proposals.

Polish PM Tusk cancels Germany trip as bilateral relations sour. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s last-minute cancellation of his trip to Germany for the M100 Media Award ceremony, coupled with Chancellor Scholz’s withdrawal, highlights worsening Polish-German relations, per Euroactiv.

Netherlands gives Ukraine green light for Russia deep strikes with Dutch weapons. Dutch Defense Minister Brekelmans says the Netherlands permits Ukraine to use Dutch-supplied weapons, including F-16 fighters, for strikes into Russian territory without range restrictions. He encourages other allies to adopt similar policies.

Ukrainian foreign minister calls for NATO air defense action after Russian drones enter NATO airspace. Helping shoot down drones and missiles over Ukraine and lifting restrictions on the use of their weapons would help NATO allies “put an end to Russian aggression, protect lives, and keep Europe at peace,” the Minister stated.

EU to donate 1 million more textbooks for children to Ukraine. Ukraine is set to receive one million more textbooks from the European Union, supplementing the 500,000 already delivered.

Ukrainian MPs urge Canada to block screening of Russian propaganda film at Toronto festival. Russian-Canadian director Anastasia Trofimova’s documentary Russians at War whitewashes the Russian army that attacked Ukraine and, as Ukrainian MPs state, promotes Russia’s soft power narratives about a “deeper understanding of war.”

Humanitarian and social impact

Russian pollution causes massive fish die-off in Ukraine’s Seym and Desna rivers. Russian pollution has caused nearly 30 tons of fish to die in Ukraine’s Seym and Desna rivers. Authorities are monitoring the contamination, expected to reach Kyiv by 14-16 September.

Ukraine identifies the Russian general who gave the order for a missile strike on Kyiv Children’s Hospital. As the suspect Sergei Kobilash is currently in Russia, “comprehensive measures are ongoing to bring him to justice for crimes against Ukraine,” the Security Service stated.

Russia intensifies use of chemical weapons against Ukraine, Ukrainian military reports. In August 2024 alone, 447 such cases were documented.

Political and legal developments

Ukraine rejects extension of Russian gas transit after 2024. The previous pre-war contract on gas transit from Russia to the EU, mainly to Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria expires at the end of 2024.

Latvia confirms that downed UAV was Russian Shahed with explosive device. A Russian military drone carrying explosives crashed in eastern Latvia on Saturday, prompting calls for increased border security.

Read our earlier daily review here.