Russo-Ukrainian war, day 933: Ukraine’s demographic crisis deepens as war takes toll on population

Exclusive

Archeological research suggests first cities of humanity were in Ukraine, not in Mesopotamia. Massive planned settlements discovered in Ukraine, dating back to 4000 BCE, are rewriting the history of early urbanization. These sprawling sites are forcing archaeologists to reconsider when, where, and how the first cities emerged.

Leaked intel, late aid deliveries: RUSI report exposes flaws in Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive. The UK’s top defense think tank revealed how overambitious planning and resource shortfall caused Ukraine’s anticipated offense to fall flat.

Military

ISW: Russian forces to face difficulties in counterattacks in Kursk Oblast. An ISW assessment suggests that Russian counterattacks in Kursk Oblast will become increasingly difficult as they approach areas of stronger Ukrainian presence. Son of Ukraine’s Chief Rabbi Azman killed in action on frontlines. Matityahu Samborsky, the adopted son of Chief Rabbi Moshe Asman, was declared missing in July and recently confirmed dead. As of 13 SEP 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 631420 (+1220)
    • Tanks: 8671 (+18)
    • APV: 17003 (+48)
    • Artillery systems: 18061 (+52)
    • MLRS: 1185 (+1)
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 945
    • Aircraft: 369
    • Helicopters: 328
    • UAV: 15113 (+80)
    • Cruise missiles : 2591
    • Warships/boats: 28
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 24560 (+79)

Intelligence and technology

British intelligence: With Iranian missiles, Russia to be able to hit Ukrainian targets near front line. British defense intelligence reports that new Iranian missiles will allow Russia to conduct more precise strikes on Ukrainian targets near the front lines.

US Army adapts tactics based on Ukrainian battlefield experiences. Increased investment in artillery and unmanned aerial systems tops the list of changes the US Army is implementing following observations from the Ukrainian army.

Voice of America: Russia repairs Su-30s with Western equipment. A recent investigation has uncovered a complex international scheme allowing Russia to maintain its Su-30SM fighter jets using French equipment, potentially undermining the effectiveness of sanctions.

Ukrainian F-16 training underway in Romania. Ukrainian pilots have arrived in Romania and commenced training on F-16 fighter jets. This development comes amid increasing concerns over Russian threats to NATO aircraft.

Ukraine Integrates “Black Widow” bomber drone into its armed forces. This reusable tactical quadcopter is suitable for both day and night operations.

Latvia to provide Patria AMVs and drones to Ukraine in 2025. Latvian PM announced a €40 million military aid package for Ukraine, including Patria AMVs, drones, ammunition, and training for 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers. Latvia pledges continued support, allocating 0.25% of GDP annually for military aid.

International

White House: US maintains stance on long-range missile restrictions for Ukraine. There will be no change to the United States’ policy regarding the provision of long-range missiles to Ukraine, according to White House spokesman.

Polish FM: Payments for Czech shell initiative delayed but forthcoming. A criminal case against a former Polish official has temporarily derailed the country’s financial support for a Czech-led initiative to provide Ukraine with much-needed artillery ammunition.

Trudeau: Canada fully supports Ukraine using long-range weaponry. “Canada and others are unequivocal that Ukraine must win this war against Russia,” Trudeau said.

Zelenskyy: many promised Western weapons still not delivered to Ukraine. Speaking at Yalta YES forum he said he will present his plan of victory to US President Joe Biden and presidential candidates.

Major Austrian gas consumer to stop Russian supplies amid expected Ukraine transit halt. Vienna’s largest energy company serving two million people said it will completely replace Russian gas with alternative supplies starting in 2025.

Starmer responds to Putin’s threats: Russia started the war and can end it. His comments came amid media reports about the upcoming British decision to allow Ukraine use British Storm Shadow missiles against targets on Russian territory.

EU responds to Putin’s threats about direct involvement in war. “Putin regularly makes many false comments… nothing he says will change our positions as long as he continues this illegal aggression,” EU spox said.

UK Foreign Minister calls for increased support to Ukraine as winter fighting looms.  Foreign Secretary David Lammy has stressed the need to provide Ukraine with weapons to secure victory against Russia as “a pivotal winter of fighting” approaches.

Polish FM visits Lviv, urges faster aid to Ukraine. During a visit to Lviv, Polish FM Radosław Sikorski called for lifting long-range restrictions on Ukraine, stressing that the country’s resilience is not endless.

Humanitarian and social impact

Ukraine faces the highest death rate and lowest birth rate globally amid Russia’s war. The demographic crisis poses the greatest long-term threat to Ukraine’s defense and sustainability. For every 1,000 Ukrainians, 18 die, while only six are born annually.

Ukraine returns 49 more defenders and civilians from Russian captivity. Among those freed is Lenie Umerova, a Crimean Tatar activist who was captured by Russian forces while crossing the Georgian border.

Three Red Cross workers dead after convoy shelled by Russians in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast. The International Committee of the Red Cross has condemned an attack that killed three of its workers in eastern Ukraine, but does not name those responsible.

Ships aiding Russian looting in Ukraine’s occupied ports detained. Despite efforts to obscure their identities, these vessels are being tracked and face criminal charges for illegal border crossings.

Political and legal developments

Ukrainian government approves 2025 state budget draft. The total revenues will increase to $48 billion and total expenses will slightly increase to $87 billion. Defense budget will be $54 billion.

ICC team investigates Russian torture chambers in Kharkiv Oblast. The International Criminal Court investigators collected evidence of Russian war crimes amid the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan’s sixth visit to Ukraine.

Russian Central Bank raises key rate to 19% as inflation surges. The Central Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate for the seventh time since July 2023, when it stood at 7.5% per annum.

IMF approves $1.1 billion tranche for Ukraine, sets conditions for reforms. Key conditions include combating tax evasion.

Media network that funded film about “good Russian occupiers” will not show it on Canadian festival. TVO, Ontario’s public media organization, has ceased all support for the controversial film Russians at War following significant public and diplomatic backlash.

Read our earlier daily review here.

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