Russo-Ukrainian War, day 936: Ukraine launches new offensive into Russia’s Kursk, units face artillery shortage due to slow Western aid
The new offensive in Kursk Oblast targets Russian logistics and advances towards the Glushkovo district center. While Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has highlighted a stark imbalance in artillery capabilities, with only 4 out of 14 planned brigades fully equipped due to the slow pace of Western aid. He also reported that Russian drone attacks on Ukraine have intensified, with over 640 Shahed-type drones launched at the country in September alone.
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Military
Frontline report: Ukraine launches cross-border “counter-counter-offensive” towards Russia’s Glushkovo. Ukraine’s new offensive in Kursk Oblast targets Russian logistics, advances towards Glushkovo district center, and outmaneuvers counterattacks using ATACMS strikes.
Russian forces advance near Donetsk’s Vuhledar, destroy key mine infrastructure. Russian forces achieve tactical gains near Vuhledar and other settlements in Donetsk Oblast, possibly aiming to isolate Vuhledar from its supply routes in the future.
Forbes: Ukraine expands incursion into Russia with new thrust into Kursk Oblast. Last week, in response to Russia’s counterattack, Ukraine opened a new axis of advance into Kursk Oblast, breaching border defenses and advancing into Veseloe, where they encountered poorly-trained conscripts.
Ukraine repels massive Russian drone attack, downing 53 of 56 Shaheds in another nightly assault. Ukrainian air defenses thwarted a massive Russian drone assault, downing 53 of 56 Shahed UAVs. The attack targeted nine regions, primarily Kyiv City, resulting in one injury and some property damage from fallen debris.
Zelenskyy: Russia launched over 640 Shahed-type drones at Ukraine in September. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reports an intensification of Russian drone attacks, with over 640 Shahed-type drones launched at Ukraine in early September.
Allegedly cross-border strikes hit Russia’s Belgorod, damaging civilian infrastructure. Belgorod, a city near the Ukrainian border, faced a complex assault involving both drones and multiple launch rocket systems on 16 September and allegedly causing widespread damage to residential buildings and vehicles.
As of 16 SEP 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:
- Personnel: 634860 (+1060)
- Tanks: 8683 (+3)
- APV: 17071 (+8)
- Artillery systems: 18123 (+14)
- MLRS: 1187 (+1)
- Anti-aircraft systems: 947
- Aircraft: 369
- Helicopters: 328
- UAV: 15263 (+29)
- Cruise missiles : 2592
- Warships/boats: 28
- Submarines: 1
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 24712 (+28)
Intelligence and technology
Long-range strikes into Russia with British Storm Shadow missiles need US permission on cartography data. A complex web of international regulations and data ownership is complicating Ukraine’s plans to use Storm Shadow missiles against Russian military targets. The missiles’ advanced guidance system requires highly accurate US-owned elevation maps, potentially requiring Washington’s approval for their use.
Zelenskyy: Only 4 of 14 planned brigades equipped due to slow pace of Western aid. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy highlighted a stark imbalance in artillery capabilities during a recent CNN interview, naming a 12 to 1 ratio imbalance and underscoring the urgent need for increased munitions support from Ukraine’s partners.
Ukrainian experimental interceptor drone hits 325 km/h. Ukraine’s Wild Hornets community has advanced their anti-air FPV drone technology, achieving speeds of 325 km/h.
Russian military to grow by 180,000 personnel, decree states. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to increase the country’s armed forces by 180,000 personnel, bringing the total to 2.39 million.
Politico: Biden deliberates on Ukraine’s missile use in Russia as nuclear plants face rising threats. Washington is not yet ready to fully allow Ukraine to target Russia’s airfields with long-range US missiles, though it may lift restrictions on the UK’s Storm Shadow missiles, which use US technology, per Politico.
ISW: Russia aims for victory over Ukraine by 2026 amid growing economic challenges. Russia has economic and force generation constraints, increasingly relying on foreign military supplies, possibly considering mobilization if current efforts fail to meet operational requirements, per ISW.
International
Zelenskyy to speak at UN General Assembly next week. Western allies reportedly will discuss allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons against targets within Russia during the upcoming UN General Assembly.
“Political violence has no place anywhere in world” – Zelenskyy condemns attempted assassination of Trump. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has spoken out against political violence following an alleged assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump.
Denmark to deliver batch of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine by end of 2024 – Defense Minister. Ukrainian armed forces are set to receive additional F-16 aircraft from Denmark this year, as part of a larger commitment of 19 fighters, according to Danish officials.
Italy set to send second SAMP/T anti-air system to Ukraine, says FM Tajani. Italy lacks the long-range capabilities provided by the UK and UK, so focuses on protection of civilians.
Latvia to donate British-made CVR-T armored vehicles to Ukraine. Latvia’s Defense Ministry confirms plans to donate CVR(T) armored reconnaissance vehicles to Ukraine, but the number remains undisclosed for security reasons.
Humanitarian and social impact
Kyiv invites international organizations to Kursk amid ongoing military action. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has called on the UN and Red Cross to assist with humanitarian efforts in areas of Russia’s Kursk Oblast now under Ukrainian control.
Strongest earthquake of 2024 strikes Romania, tremors reach Ukraine. The tremors reached as far as Odesa, located approximately 340 kilometers from the epicenter.
Toronto film festival to screen Russians at War film amidst propaganda claims. The Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) decided to screen Russians at War on 17 September at the TIFF Lightbox, after initially suspending showings due to security concerns after the film sparked protests from Ukrainian officials and community, who claimed it amounts to propaganda.
Political and legal developments
Ukraine adds Russians at War filmmaker to national security threat list. The Ukrainian government added filmmaker Anastasia Trofimova to its security watch list, rejecting her documentary’s framing of the war as a conflict between “brotherly nations,” which potentially fuels Russian propaganda.
Other developments
Russia receives at least $1 bn in profits from grain stolen in occupied Ukraine. A complex network of international actors is profiting from Russia’s theft of Ukrainian grain, undermining efforts to isolate Moscow economically.
“Delusional ideas”: Ukrainian military officials describe communications with Trump assassination suspect. Despite Routh’s expressions of support for Ukraine, multiple Ukrainian military units, including the 12th National Guard Azov Brigade and the International Legion, have issued statements denying any connection to Ryan Wesley Routh. Officials described his attempts to contact them as unrealistic and delusional.
- Read our earlier daily review here.
