Russo-Ukrainian War, day 958: Biden’s Germany trip postponed, crucial Ukraine talks hang in balance

Exclusive

“War tax” on Russian LNG is key to starving Kremlin’s war chest. As Russia’s military budget swells to nearly 8% of GDP, policy analysts urge the EU to implement a targeted customs duty on Russian LNG imports

Military

Frontline report: Ukraine ignites Russian strategic bases, flames span from Crimea to Urals. In a sweeping assault igniting Russian military infrastructure across a 1,500-kilometer arc, Ukrainian forces struck strategic targets from occupied Crimea to the Urals, beginning with a devastating attack on Feodosia’s port.

Russian airstrike on Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast kills 77-year-old, injures elderly residents. Six people were wounded in the attack. The eldest injured woman is 83 years old, while the oldest man is 73.

Russian airstrike kills 2 elderly civilians by the lake in Kharkiv (updated). Six Russian bombs struck Kharkiv Oblast on Tuesday, with one hitting a densely populated residential area in the city of Kharkiv.

Ukrainian forces destroy Russian 2S7 Pion heavy artillery with cluster munition. The Ukrainian strike eliminated the Pion, its Russian crew and an ammunition truck during resupply.

Russia deploys 7 Kalibr missile carriers in the Black Sea, capable of launching up to 48 missiles. Ukraine’s military leadership warns of potential escalation of missile attacks as Russia increases its naval presence in the Black Sea, deploying multiple missile-carrying vessels.

Fires erupt in Chornomorsk apartment building following Russian drone attack. During Russia’s daily Shahed drone assault against Ukraine, one of the drones hit a residential high-rise in Odesa Oblast.

Russian forces enter eastern Toretsk as fierce street battles erupt, Ukrainian military says. Ukrainian military spokesperson reports ongoing fierce street battles “for every building entrance” and counterattacks by defense forces to regain lost positions.

As of 8 OCT 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 662970 (+1340)
    • Tanks: 8940 (+7)
    • APV: 17740 (+30)
    • Artillery systems: 19203 (+47)
    • MLRS: 1223
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 973
    • Aircraft: 368
    • Helicopters: 328
    • UAV: 16686 (+43)
    • Cruise missiles : 2618 (+3)
    • Warships/boats: 28
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 26185 (+83)

Intelligence and technology

Forbes: Ukraine up-armors its remaining Abrams tanks, adds anti-drone jamming. These upgrades aim to preserve the remaining tanks amid losses and limited replacements, with potential reinforcements from Australia under consideration.

Vilnius seizes Russian military camo materials cargo, reroutes to Ukraine. Lithuanian customs officials intercepted the supplies en route from Kaliningrad to Moscow, redirecting them to Ukraine.

UK grants Ukraine £3.5 billion for British-made weapons procurement. A UK trade mission, including government and industry representatives, visited Kyiv to discuss future equipment needs and enhance defense industry collaboration.

France to deliver upgraded Mirage 2000 fighters to Ukraine in 2025. The upgrades will include enhancing their air-to-ground combat capabilities and electronic warfare systems, as per France’s Defense Minister.

Ukraine receives artillery shells funded by a Slovak crowdfunding initiative. Ukraine has received 122 tons of artillery shells, funded by 4 million euros from 70,000 Slovak citizens, after official Bratislava completely cut off military aid for Ukraine.

International

Delay looms for Ukraine’s second Peace Summit planned for November. The follow-up to Ukraine’s July peace talks may be pushed back, according to recent statements from a key official in Kyiv.

Biden postpones trip to Ramstein in Germany due to hurricane threat. A planned presentation of Ukraine’s “victory plan” to allies has been disrupted as President Biden cancels his trip to Germany due to domestic weather concerns.

Bloomberg: Scholz, Biden, Macron, and Starmer to meet on 12 Oct for crucial Ukraine talks. The leaders will then join a Ukraine Contact Group summit at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, with Biden at the helm.

Lithuanian solar company powers Odesa institutions with new project for Ukraine. Lithuanian company UAB Okata has initiated solar projects in Ukraine that will supply electricity to 11 public institutions, including hospitals and schools.

Harris rules out bilateral talks with Putin on Ukraine without Ukraine in CBS interview. US VP Kamala emphasized Ukraine’s participation in peace negotiations. She avoided committing to Ukraine’s NATO membership.

Humanitarian and social impact

Russians stole 180 thousand tons of Ukrainian grain through Mariupol port. Ukraine’s Prime Minister has raised concerns about Russian economic terrorism, citing the export of stolen grain and planned coal shipments from occupied territories.

Ukrainian Armed Forces received 11,000 cans of inedible canned meat – investigation. Ukrainian soldiers have been supplied with canned pork containing only 22.4% meat instead of the required 59%, according to laboratory tests.

Political and legal developments

Putin demolishes Black Sea retreat amid drone fears. Satellite imagery reveals the complete demolition of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s beloved dacha near Sochi, reportedly due to escalating security concerns.

Dutch banks release € 560 million in Russian assets amid sanction loopholes. The value of frozen assets had decreased by over sixfold from the initial estimates.

Polish farmers resume Ukrainian border blockade at Medyka-Shehyni crossing until year-end. Polish farmers begin blocking truck traffic at the border crossing from 8 October to 31 December 2024, the Ukrainian State Customs Service has informed.

EU targets Russian hybrid threats with fresh sanctions framework. The new sanctions regime targets such threats as electoral interference, economic sabotage, disinformation, and cyber activities that undermine EU security and values.

ISW: Kremlin to elevate 50 Ukraine war veterans as mayors and governors in Russia by 2026. Concurrently, Russian regional authorities are significantly increasing one-time payments to military volunteers and contract personnel.

Read our earlier daily review here.