Russo-Ukrainian War, day 963: Biden’s Germany trip rescheduled, but Ramstein meeting on Ukraine canceled

Exclusives

Outdated Western thinking empowers Russia’s war machine. Decades of viewing Ukraine as a mere “buffer zone” between Europe and Russia have led to precarious Western complacency amid a roaring global conflict, experts warn.

Cotton fields in Ukraine? Yes, to tackle global gunpowder shortage. Ukraine is turning to an unlikely solution – cotton cultivation – to combat a global gunpowder shortage. With Western allies struggling to meet artillery needs, experimental fields in Odesa Oblast aim to produce nitrocellulose, a key gunpowder component. Russia, meanwhile, faces no such ammunition constraints.

Military

Forbes: Ukrainian drones strike moving Russian tank at night. “Our pilots demonstrated the highest level of skill,” the Ukrainian military’s drone branch boasted.

Russians kill at least three civilians, injure 18 in attacks across frontlines since yesterday’s morning. The Ukrainian military reported 186 combat engagements in the past day, with multiple regions hit by Russian shelling and airstrikes, causing power outages in hundreds of settlements.

Ukraine downs 31 “attack drones” as Russia launches 68 UAVs, four missiles. 36 Russian drones were reportedly “locationally lost” in various regions of Ukraine, i.e. disappeared from radars, possibly crashing.

As of 13 OCT 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 668930 (+1300)
    • Tanks: 8971 (+9)
    • APV: 17876 (+49)
    • Artillery systems: 19410 (+29)
    • MLRS: 1231 (+1)
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 978
    • Aircraft: 369
    • Helicopters: 329
    • UAV: 16992 (+45)
    • Cruise missiles : 2619
    • Warships/boats: 28
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 26584 (+71)

Intelligence and technology

UK intel: Russia’s OKEAN-24 naval drill figures likely exaggerated. Russia conducted its OKEAN-24 naval exercise in September 2024, though Ukrainian attacks prevented any activity in the Black Sea during the exercise.

WP: EU invests in Ukraine’s arms sector as Europe fails to meet supply needs. The European Union is investing $440 million in Ukraine’s growing arms industry, using profits from frozen Russian assets.

Ukrainian-made Stick M12 loitering munition boasts 70 km range. Ukrainian company United Military Solutions has developed the Stick M12 loitering munition, deployed to frontline units and supported by a regional administration for future production.

OSINT confirms destruction of eight fuel tanks at oil depot in occupied Crimea. A Ukrainian missile attack on 7 October targeted the Feodosia oil terminal in occupied Crimea, sparking a days-long fire.

Russian naval security barriers for Kerch Bridge found floating near Kerch coast. Russian-deployed boom defenses are observed floating near the coast, as Russia has increased defensive measures with additional barges.

Russia’s illicit use of Starlink increases Russian effectiveness, Ukrainian soldiers report. Russian forces have obtained Starlink terminals through a black market, enhancing their battlefield coordination, drone operations, and artillery accuracy in Ukraine.

Russian source claims Ukrainian F-16’s first shootdown of Russian manned aircraft, Su-34 bomber. ISW cannot verify the claim, while other Russian sources speculate the crash could have been caused by malfunction or pilot error.

International

Estonia seeks to buy Ukrainian-made weapons – but restrictions apply. Estonia aims to support Ukraine’s defense industry by purchasing its weapons, but wartime restrictions present challenges.

Zelenskyy warns: North Korean troops join Russia’s war in Ukraine. Pyongyang has moved beyond supplying weapons to Moscow and is now sending military personnel.

Germany halts heavy weapon deliveries to Ukraine, Bild reports — but that’s not the full story. The halt likely applies only to Bundeswehr stockpiles.

Bloomberg: Biden to visit Germany on 18 Oct, Ramstein NATO meeting on Ukraine canceled. He was supposed to lead the meeting, where Zelenskyy was expected to present his Victory plan to key NATO leaders.

Biden reschedules Germany visit for 18 October, reports say. He was set to arrive in Germany on 12 October to lead the Ramstein meeting on aid to Ukraine, and Zelenskyy was expected to attend. However, Biden postponed the visit due to a hurricane in the US.

Humanitarian and social impact

Ukraine reports 88 West Nile virus cases with 11 deaths since July 2024. The virus, transmitted by mosquitoes and having no vaccine or specific treatment, is spreading to new regions due to climate change.

Ukraine opens criminal case over journalist’s death in Russian captivity. The case, initially regarding disappearance of Viktoria Roshchyna, has now been reclassified as intentional murder.

Russians kill Ukrainian POWs “more frequently,” Kyiv appeals for international action. In the latest incident, nine Ukrainian POWs were allegedly executed by Russian forces in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

Russian forces launch 900 guided bombs on Ukraine in one week, Zelenskyy says. He stresses the urgent need for international support in providing air defense systems and long-range capabilities.

Russians execute nine Ukrainian POWs in Kursk Oblast. Ukraine’s Ombudsman Lubinets has informed the UN and ICRC about the reported execution of nine Ukrainian prisoners of war.

Read our earlier daily review here.