Russo-Ukrainian War, day 967: Ukraine liberates 400 hectares of forest north of Lyptsi in Kharkiv Oblast

Exclusives

Russia’s Arctic fossil fuel boom fuels Ukraine war and climate crisis. Russia’s Arctic fossil fuel reserves exceed the global carbon budget by 200-300%, with projects like Vostok Oil threatening to unleash 6.5 gigatons of crude. As Putin’s regime exploits these resources to fund its war in Ukraine, the world inches closer to breaching Paris Agreement targets.

Mother breaks barriers as Ukraine’s first female armored service leader and battlefield veteran. Known by her call sign “Malva”, Liudmyla Meniuk went from volunteer to seasoned fighter, speaking on the global stage about Ukraine’s ongoing battle for survival.

Military

Ukrainian military says Russian forces amass troops for new assaults on Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast. Russian troops have gathered a large number of forces in the Toretsk direction, with Ukrainian defenders facing fierce battles as the enemy attempts to gain control of this strategically vital city.

Russian military targets Chasiv Yar, key Ukrainian stronghold in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces are intensifying their assaults on Chasiv Yar, aiming to penetrate the defenses of Ukrainian troops, who are bracing for ongoing combat in the region, as reported by Joint Forces Operation Spokesperson Anastasia Bobovnikova. Kharkiv officials urge residents of Kupiansk district to evacuate as Russian troops approach again. As the combat zone expands near Kupiansk, Kharkiv OVA chief Oleg Synehubov is urging residents to evacuate due to the imminent threat posed by advancing Russian forces, which were spotted four kilometers from the city limits.

Russians try to encircle Donetsk’s Selydove, targeting nearby Vyshneve with infantry and armor. They aim to expand fire control and disrupt Ukrainian logistics, avoiding direct urban combat, the Ukrainian military says.

Ukraine liberates 400 hectares of forest north of Lyptsi, Kharkiv Oblast. The operation resulted in the destruction of three Russian motorized rifle battalions and the capture of POWs, significantly weakening the invaders’ position in the area, HUR says.

Video captures Ukrainian tanks destroy Russian APC at point-blank range in Kursk Oblast. Ukraine’s 17th Tank Brigade engaged and destroyed a Russian armored personnel carrier in a close-quarters battle.

ISW: Russia’s ability to sustain prolonged offensive operations in question. Russia faces medium to long-term constraints in force generation and military-industrial production, undermining Russia’s ability to overwhelm Ukraine through attrition.

As of 17 OCT 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 674270 (+1420)
• Tanks: 9014 (+17)
• APV: 18002 (+33)
• Artillery systems: 19510 (+51)
• MLRS: 1232 (+1)
• Anti-aircraft systems: 978
• Aircraft: 369
• Helicopters: 329
• UAV: 17104 (+54)
• Cruise missiles: 2620
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 26815 (+83)

Intelligence and technology

British Defense Ministry: Ukrainian attacks degrade Russian military capabilities in Crimea. The latest strike on 7 October targeted a key oil terminal in Feodosia, the largest on the peninsula for supplying oil products to Russian forces.

The Guardian: UK suspects Russian spies behind DHL warehouse fire. British investigators believe Russian operatives may be responsible for a fire at a DHL warehouse. The operation might have been a part of a wider campaign targeting Ukraine’s Western partners.

Ukraine to help Lithuania build RDX explosives factory. The factory construction project, aimed at bolstering the defense capabilities of Ukraine, Lithuania, and the EU, is scheduled to begin in 2025.

Japan to supply AI drones to Ukraine for humanitarian demining. Japanese drone manufacturer Prodrone plans to provide Ukraine with cutting-edge industrial drones for humanitarian demining.

Greece pledges additional resources for Ukrainian F-16 pilot and technician training. Greece and Ukraine sign a comprehensive Security Cooperation Agreement, bolstering military support and F-16 training for Ukrainian forces while expanding collaboration across multiple sectors.

France successfully tests new kamikaze drone, Ukraine delivery imminent. The drone, reportedly based on the civilian Delair Tech UX11, is set to be delivered to Ukraine and French forces in the coming weeks.

WSJ: Ukraine’s F-16 squadron faces extended timeline as US trains younger pilots. The US is shifting F-16 training for Ukraine to younger cadets, potentially delaying squadron deployment by months.

International

Norway allocates $ 270 million to support Ukraine’s energy sector amid Russian attacks. This aid was announced by the Norwegian Foreign Minister as he also visited a thermal power plant in Kyiv Oblast that had been damaged by Russian forces.

Zelenskyy reveals Trump talk on Ukraine’s NATO plea, cites Budapest Memorandum failings. Ukrainian President emphasized that now Ukraine can either have nuclear weapons, which it gave up after 1994 Budapest Memorandum, or join NATO alliance as the victory plan offers.

Zelenskyy: US, Germany, France, and Italy seek unity on allowing Ukraine to strike inside Russia. As Ukraine works to neutralize Russia’s drone and missile threats, approval for such operations remains critical to its defense strategy.

Norway backs Ukraine’s NATO bid, welcomes Zelenskyy’s victory plan. Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide calls for constructive dialogue on Ukraine’s NATO invitation during Kyiv visit.

Zelenskyy warns EU: Rejecting Ukraine’s victory plan is “privilege from world to Russia”. Ukrainian President also stressed the importance of a NATO invitation for Ukraine, which would send a powerful message of support that Ukraine is “not alone.”

NATO won’t invite Ukraine to alliance in short term despite Zelenskyy’s “victory plan” push . NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte emphasized long-term support for Ukraine while avoiding specific commitments on membership timing.

“Real nature of Kremlin regime:” EU condemns Russian glorification of increasing Ukrainian POW executions. Recent incidents of large-scale killings of unarmed Ukrainian soldiers expose what the EU describes as “the real nature of the regime in the Kremlin.”

Humanitarian and social impact

Politico: Marine life at risk worldwide as Russia’s shadow fleet spills oil, bypassing sanctions. Despite Western efforts to curb Moscow’s oil revenues through sanctions, Russia continues transporting oil worldwide using “shadow fleet,” aging tankers operating outside international regulations, which were detected spilling oil in waters and threatening the environment.

Russia strikes energy facilities as Ukraine repels nighttime drone attack. Russian forces launched 56 drones and a missile at Ukraine, targeting Kyiv and Mykolaiv, with air defenses downing 22 drones and neutralizing 27 more.

Ukraine calls for maritime monitoring amid Russian attacks on Greater Odesa ports. Ukraine’s FM Sybiha formally requested an International Maritime Organization monitoring mission for Odesa Oblast ports, citing intensified Russian attacks on port infrastructure, grain storage facilities, and civilian vessels.

Political and legal developments

Ukraine blocks Russia’s chairmanship in Black Sea environmental commission. Russia’s bid to chair the Commission for the Protection of the Black Sea Against Pollution failed, with Ukraine arguing that Russia’s war against Ukraine makes it impossible to implement the Black Sea Protection Convention.

New developments

Russia faces record workforce shortages, manufacturing sector hit hardest. They reached a historic low in the third quarter of 2024, per Russia’s Central bank.

Read our earlier daily review here