Russo-Ukrainian war, day 969: France backs Ukraine’s victory plan, US may soften stance on NATO bid as Western leaders meet in Berlin
French Foreign Minister expressed his support for Zelenskyy’s victory plan during his visit to Kyiv, while Scholz, Biden, Starmer, and Macron met in Berlin to discuss Ukrainian demands in Zelenskyy's plan, presented earlier this week. Diplomat sources claim that Biden may reconsider his position on Ukraine's NATO membership, but it depends on the outcome of upcoming US elections.
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Military
ISW: Putin’s peace rhetoric ahead of BRICS summit is smokescreen for Ukrainian capitulation demands. Russia’s President claims openness for “peace negotiations” but continues to frame Ukraine as the aggressor in the war and reaffirms Russia’s readiness to “continue this fight.”
Russia launches over 100 air targets across Ukraine overnight, causing civilian casualties. Ukrainian forces claim to have intercepted 42 Russian drones and four guided missiles, but the attack still resulted in civilian casualties and damage to critical infrastructure in multiple oblasts.
Drones target major Russian microelectronics plant crucial for military equipment. Russian authorities report intercepting 16 Ukrainian drones, with the strategically important Kremniy plant in Bryansk allegedly targeted.
As of 19 OCT 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:
- Personnel: 677180 (+1380)
- Tanks: 9035 (+8)
- APV: 18072 (+19)
- Artillery systems: 19548 (+15)
- MLRS: 1232
- Anti-aircraft systems: 978
- Aircraft: 369
- Helicopters: 329
- UAV: 17230 (+78)
- Cruise missiles : 2623 (+3)
- Warships/boats: 28
- Submarines: 1
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 26946 (+38)
Intelligence and technology
US House Intel chair: “North Korean troops in Ukraine must be a red line for the US”. In a letter to President Biden, US Congressman Mike Turner called for an “immediate” White House briefing on reports of North Korean military involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
International
Le Monde: US softens stance on Ukraine’s NATO bid, potentially influencing Germany, sources say. An unnamed European diplomat suggests that if Kamala Harris wins the upcoming US presidential election, President Biden might push for Ukraine’s NATO invitation during the transition period, but Trump’s victory could derail such efforts.
French minister Barrot backs Ukraine’s victory plan, calls for other allies’ support. Jean-Noël Barrot described the Russo-Ukrainian war as a battle between “freedom from oppression” and emphasized that a Russian victory would push the world order “toward chaos.”
Biden: NATO allies split over Ukraine’s long-range strikes inside Russia. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, for example, reiterates his opposition to Ukraine’s early NATO membership and continued refusal to provide long-range missiles to Ukraine.
French minister warns of escalation as North Korea may join Russia’s war. The possible deployment of North Korean soldiers to aid Russia in Ukraine has prompted responses from European officials, with France’s top diplomat suggesting it indicates Russia’s military challenges.
Netherlands allocates $ 42.3 mn for Ukrainian drone purchase. As part of a $435 mn drone action plan, the Netherlands is set to deliver cutting-edge surveillance drones to Ukraine, supporting both ally defense and domestic industry.
Denmark pledges $ 350 million military aid package for Ukraine. The Danish government is also set to increase its Industry Fund by 500 million kroner (about $71 million) to procure new weapons and equipment for Ukraine.
British PM Starmer: North Korean troops for war in Ukraine reflect Russia’s “desperation”. Starmer emphasized Russia’s challenging position due to high personnel casualties and resource depletion, driving Moscow to seek unconventional allies like North Korea.
Humanitarian and social impact
95 Ukrainian defenders return from Russian captivity, including Azov fighters and POWs facing life sentences. Among those released was Maksym Butkevych, a Ukrainian human rights activist and serviceman, who was captured near Luhansk in 2022 and sentenced to 13 years in Russia. The exchange also saw the return of Vladyslav Andrianov, an Azov fighter who survived the Olenivka prison massacre and faced a 25-year sentence in Russia.
France announces support for child rehabilitation centers in Ukraine. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha welcomed France’s active role in child repatriation efforts during a joint press conference with his French counterpart in Kyiv.
Romania says drone breached its airspace during Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Four fighter jets were scrambled by Romanian authorities on 19 Oct. after detecting an unidentified flying object that penetrated up to 45 kilometers into the country’s eastern region.
Political and legal developments
US offers $ 10 million reward for info about Russian Rybar media, interfering in US elections. The Kremlin-linked Rybar media group established a “TEXASvsUSA” channel on X, aiming to exploit tensions around undocumented immigration at the Texas border and “promote social division” ahead of the 2024 US presidential election.
New developments
Over 20 Finnish business projects received support under Ukraine’s reconstruction plan. Finland’s plan for Ukraine’s reconstruction includes tools to stimulate private business involvement in key sectors such as construction and energy.
