Russo-Ukrainian war, day 972: North Korea deploys troops to Russia as South Korea weighs military support for Ukraine

Exclusives

Does Russia face military collapse by 2026? Inside Ukraine’s strategic assessment. As tank reserves deplete and production stalls, intelligence analysis points to a critical deadline for Russia’s war effort. Yet Putin’s ability to sustain low-intensity conflict challenges this timeline

West сan no longer ignore China’s complicity in Russia’s war. The path to ending Russia’s war runs not through Moscow but through Beijing, demanding difficult decisions Western leaders keep postponing.

Russia is the last European colonial empire, but the West looks away. Expert explains why. One empire remains overlooked as the world grapples with colonial legacies: Russia. Historian Botakoz Kassymbekova warns that Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine isn’t mere aggression but a continuation of centuries-old colonial ambitions.

Meet “Russian disease,” the centuries-old corruption plaguing Ukraine invasion. From expired rations to sunken flagships, it echoes historical defeats, transforming Putin’s “three-day” campaign into a prolonged struggle against not just Ukraine but Russia’s own systemic rot.

Military

ISW: Russians capture three villages near Kurakhove, advance in Selydove; Ukrainians gain ground in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces conducted successful mechanized assaults near Kurakhove.

Drones strike distilleries in multiple Russian regions. Allegedly, Ukrainian UAVs targeted Russian alcohol production facilities in Tula, Tambov, and Voronezh oblasts, damaging factory buildings.

As of 22 OCT 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 681580 (+1350)
• Tanks: 9079 (+8)
• APV: 18199 (+24)
• Artillery systems: 19623 (+34)
• MLRS: 1234 (+2)
• Anti-aircraft systems: 981
• Aircraft: 369
• Helicopters: 329
• UAV: 17404 (+71)
• Cruise missiles: 2625 (+1)
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 27111 (+77)

Intelligence and Technology

Russia repurposes nuclear forces personnel as infantry amid manpower shortages. A Russian infantry regiment formed from Strategic Missile Forces personnel is now fighting in Kursk Oblast.

International

Budanov: First North Korean troops deploy to Russia’s Kursk Wednesday. With its military force exceeding 1 million soldiers, North Korea has reportedly sent 12,000 troops to train in Russia for combat operations in Ukraine.

South Korea may supply Ukraine with weapons as Pyongyang sends troops to Russia. In light of reports about the preparation of North Korean soldiers in Russia for potential use against Ukraine, South Korea is considering the provision of lethal military assistance to Ukraine.

UK pledges £ 2.26 bn military loan for Ukraine, backed from frozen Russian assets proceeds. The $2.93 billion load is Britain’s contribution to the G7’s $50 billion support package.

Euroactiv: Finland urges Germany to lose reservations on Ukraine. German leader Scholz is against supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine and opposes Ukraine’s fast-track NATO membership, still fearing an “escalation.”

Ex-CIA chief Petraeus calls for expanded tactical missile support for Ukraine. After the US announced a $400 million aid package during Austin’s Kyiv visit, Petraeus warned that more support is crucial to halt Russian advances.

India secures release of 85 citizens from Russian Army, 20 still await discharge. India announced the release of its nationals allegedly deceptively recruited into Russia’s army, with ongoing efforts for the discharge of 20 more.

South Korea considers sending personnel to Ukraine as North deploys troops to Russia. Seoul may also consider supplying lethal weapons to Ukrainian forces.

Poland to request access to secret annexes of Zelenskyy’s “Victory Plan”. Polish Deputy FM Bartoszewski argues Poland should access them, citing Warsaw’s crucial military aid and future role in Ukraine’s reconstruction.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Russian strike kills three civilains in Sumy, including 14-year-old girl, as Ukraine downs 42/60 Shaheds. Russia’s drone assault on Sumy killed Anna Kushnariova, 14, her 50-year-old mother, and her 62-year-old aunt.

UN: Ukraine’s population drops by 10 million since Russia’s all-out war began. It’s a roughly 25% population decline since February 2022, driven by 6.7 million refugees abroad, record-low fertility rates, and war casualties.

WSJ: Clan of Chechen warlord Kadyrov plunders, profits from captured Ukrainian steel plant in Mariupol. A son of Kadyrov’s trusted lieutenant now oversees operations at the steel plant in occupied Mariupol, exporting steel and scrap metal to Russia, while also looting millions-worth equipment.

Political and Legal Developments

Investigation reveals insurers of Russia’s oil tanker shadow fleet. Bloomberg and Danwatch investigation exposes a shift in Russian oil tanker insurance to domestic providers and firms from Cameroon and Kyrgyzstan, as western sanctions force vessels into shadow operations.

Bloomberg: Documents reveal Russian intelligence infiltrated Georgian state institutions amid push for EU, NATO membership. Documents obtained by Bloomberg reveal that from 2017 to 2020, Russian intelligence had access to sensitive data from Georgian energy companies, media platforms, and key government ministries.

Ukraine exposes official involved in corruption scandal over fake disability certificates. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ordered the dissolution of Ukraine’s Medical-Social Expertise Commissions after a corruption investigation revealed the involvement of high-ranking officials in acquiring fake disability certificates.

Ukraine’s top Prosecutor Kostin resigns over draft-dodging scandal involving government officials. The incident, which implicates prosecutors and other state officials, has led to national investigations.

EU demands probe into death of Ukrainian journalist Roshchyna, urges Russia to stop targeting media. Following the death of Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna in Russian detention, the European Commission has called for a full investigation into the circumstances of her death.

New Developments

Zelenskyy compares Russian economy to sinking Titanic. He criticizes delayed European sanctions implementation, costing Ukraine valuable time.

Read the daily review for Mon 21 Oct 2024 here