Russo-Ukrainian war, day 977: Russian forces intensify military pressure in three Ukrainian Oblasts

Exclusives

Georgia teeters on edge as pro-Russia party claims disputed win. Georgia’s opposition is rallying supporters after the pro-Russian party claimed a tainted 54% victory, setting the stage for the Kremlin to tighten its grip on Europe.

Why UN chief gambled everything on Putin. António Guterres broke protocol, declined Ukraine’s peace summit, and joined Putin at the BRICS summit in Kazan – all while Russian forces welcomed North Korean troops.

Military

Ukrainian drone destroys two Russia’s most potent self-propelled guns 25 km behind lines. Since the full-scale invasion’s outset, Russia lost at least 29 of its 60 valuable Pion SPGs.

Russia launches over 1,100 guided bombs in a week — Zelenskyy. Russia also utilized 560 strike drones and 20 missiles this week, maintaining pressure on Ukraine’s air defense and high intensity of air strikes along the frontline.

Media: Russian Mi-28 helicopter crashes in Kerch Strait, two pilots lost. Russian military sources report that a Mi-28 attack helicopter crashed into the Kerch Strait during a scheduled patrol flight, leaving one pilot dead and the other missing.

Forbes: Russian forces advance threatens key stronghold in Ukraine’s “fortress belt”. In Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces advance along railway toward Vyshneve, threatening to encircle Ukrainian Kara Dag Brigade defending Selydove near Pokrovsk.

ISW: Russians exert pressure and advance near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian positions in multiple locations near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar, securing several key settlements and strategic points.

Russia captures Levadne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, advances in three Ukrainian oblasts. The DeepState analytical project reports Russian advances near seven Ukrainian settlements in Luhansk, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts

As of 27 OCT 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

Intelligence and Technology

ISW: Economic strain and manpower shortage may force Putin to change his war strategy. The increase in soldiers’ salaries and deployment of North Korean troops indicate problems with current mobilization through contracts, while Putin seems reluctant to announce a new wave of compulsory mobilization.

Canada delivers armored vehicles to Ukraine. The delivery follows personnel training in Germany, but the number of vehicles was not disclosed.

International

South Korean delegation to brief NATO on North Korean troops in Russia. Seoul may also consider sending a monitoring team to Ukraine, and providing Ukraine with weapons.

Opinion: Biden’s reluctance to use NATO deterrence backfired in Ukraine. Biden’s Ukraine war containment strategy failed to prevent conflict escalation, instead leading to global economic damage, political shifts, and strengthened anti-Western alliances, The Observer says.

Finland calls on India to support Ukraine’s Peace Formula. Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen emphasizes India’s potential role in influencing Russia’s Ukraine policy.

Reuters: Putin again threatens “range of responses” if deep Russia strikes allowed with Western weapons. Ukraine is not allowed to use Western-supplied missiles inside Russia.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Russian artillery strikes kill three in Kherson, wound a child. Artillery shells hit high-rises in Kherson and multiple residential buildings in nearby rural areas on Sunday.

Russia bombs residential areas of Ukraine’s 1.4-million-populated city. Four people were wounded on 28 October as Kharkiv suffered from daily attacks with Russia’s guided bombs.

Russians murder two women, shoot at civilian car, Ukrainian prosecutors say. Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Office launched an investigation into Russian war crimes.

Russian attacks kill at least three civilians as Ukraine downs 41/80 Russian drones. Multiple regions came under Russian attack using drones, artillery, and other weapons, with casualties reported in Sumy, Donetsk, and elsewhere.

Political and Legal Developments

Georgian president calls elections “Russian special operation,” refuses to recognize results. At the same time, the Prime Minister said the current ruling party, which claims victory, will approve the new government despite protests.

International observers: Georgian elections marred by pressure and intimidation. A joint observation mission reported numerous violations that support claims of election rigging by Georgia’s democratic opposition.

Euronews: Satellite data strengthens war crime cases against Russia in Ukraine. Satellite imagery serves as crucial evidence in Ukrainian war crimes investigations, with companies like Planet Labs providing images that help prosecutors establish attack timelines.

Zelenskyy’s aide: Russia must return to pre-2022 positions before peace talks. Andriy Yermak also stated that elections in Ukraine will take place “immediately after the end of the war.”

Russia-based oligarch funneled $39 million into vote-buying scheme in Moldova. Moldovan police uncovered a $39 million vote-buying scheme, allegedly led by oligarch Ilan Shor, using Russian bank accounts ahead of recent elections and referendum.

Georgia’s opposition rejects parliamentary election results as pro-Russian ruling party claims victory with 54%. Opposition parties refuse to recognize results, plan protests, citing systematic violations and unprecedented pressure on voters.

Read our earlier daily review here.