Russo-Ukrainian war, day 978: Ukraine destroys Russian key supply route in occupied Berdiansk

Military

Russia is forcing wounded soldiers back into combat amid offensive on city of Lyman. Russia is ramping up its offensive in the strategic city of Lyman in Donetsk, deploying fresh assault units to secure ground in eastern Ukraine.

Frontline report: Kremlin postpones Kursk liberation deadline as Ukrainian elite brigades destroy Russian assault force. Russian attempts to encircle Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast backfired when Ukrainian deployed Western-provided Bradley vehicles and Abrams tanks, which helped to advance.

Ukrainian paratroopers destroy rare Russian “Terminator” vehicle in major assault near Kurakhove. In a high-stakes engagement, Ukraine’s 79th Brigade destroyed multiple Russian armored units, including a BMPT “Terminator,” thwarting Russian efforts to secure critical routes in the Donetsk Oblast.

First-ever drone strike on Chechnya sparks fire at special forces university. A drone attacked the main building of Putin-named Russian Special Forces University in Gudermes, Chechnya, causing roof fire. Kadyrov reported no casualties, downplaying the target’s significance by omitting Putin’s name.

Russian sources report Ukrainian drone attacks on two Russian distilleries in Voronezh Oblast. The Ethanol Spirit plant in the Krasnoye village was already attacked twice in October. The facility is accused of being involved in producing fuel and explosives for military purposes.

ISW: Ukraine pushes forward in Kursk Oblast while Russia gains ground near Vuhledar. Geolocated footage shows Russian forces raising their flag over two key administrative buildings in eastern Ukraine, while Ukrainian forces advanced in multiple areas of Kursk Oblast, according to the ISW.

As of 28 OCT 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 690720 (+1680)
• Tanks: 9120 (+7)
• APV: 18395 (+40)
• Artillery systems: 19872 (+51)
• MLRS: 1240
• Anti-aircraft systems: 984
• Aircraft: 369
• Helicopters: 329
• UAV: 17867 (+68)
• Cruise missiles: 2625
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 27660 (+100)

Intelligence and Technology

Croatia to supply Ukraine with M-84 Tanks, M-80 IFVS. Croatia plans to send 30 upgraded M-84 tanks to Ukraine, while acquiring 50 new Leopard 2A8 tanks from Germany as part of an expanded defense collaboration.

Bloomberg: Indian pharma company channels sanctioned AI servers used by military to Russia. Indian Shreya Life Sciences, traditionally a pharmaceutical distributor, has emerged as a significant supplier of restricted AI technology to Russia, shipping 1,111 American high-end Dell servers containing restricted Nvidia chips between April and August 2024.

Ukraine’s marines receive German Marder infantry fighting vehicles. The 36th Separate Marine Brigade, named after Rear Admiral Mykhailo Bilynskyi, has been equipped with German Marder 1A3 infantry fighting vehicles.

International

New research estimates North Korean arms supplies to Russia at $5.5 billion. The ties between North Korea and Russia are deepening, with recent analysis suggesting that the value of military supplies from Pyongyang could be as high as $5.5 billion.

NATO confirms presence of North Korean soldiers in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. North Korea deployed military personnel to Russia’s Kursk Oblast in exchange for military technology and sanctions-evasion assistance, NATO revealed.

Zelenskyy arrives in Iceland for first time to participate in the Nordic leaders’ summit. President Zelenskyy’s inaugural Iceland visit brings together nearly 90 Nordic officials to discuss Ukraine’s victory plan and military support.

German opposition leader defends Taurus delivery proposal for Ukraine. German opposition chief Friedrich Merz aligned with French and British positions on providing long-range weapons to Ukraine.

Zelenskyy sees key role for India in peace talks with Russia to end war. Ukrainian President expressed openness to holding the next peace negotiations in India, as well as other proposed countries, while emphasizing that any talks must follow Ukraine’s framework for resolution.

South Korean delegation to brief NATO on North Korean troops in Russia. Seoul may also consider sending a monitoring team to Ukraine, and providing Ukraine with weapons.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy asks G20 to stand up for Ukrainian children abducted by Russian troops during war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calls on G20 nations to take action for the return of one thousand Ukrainian children each abducted by Russia during the conflict.

Russians export over 300 tons of Ukrainian sunflower to Russia for resale in Africa. A scheme involving the forced sale of agricultural products at artificially lowered prices continues to operate in occupied Ukrainian territories.

Russia repeatedly strikes civilians in Kharkiv with precision guided bombs, injuring 21. The massive Russian attack left three apartments destroyed and 21 private homes damaged in Kharkiv, injuring five children among 21 casualties.

Russian artillery strikes kill three in Kherson, wound a child. Artillery shells hit high-rises in Kherson and multiple residential buildings in nearby rural areas on Sunday.

Political and Legal Developments

UK sanctions Kremlin-backed Social Design Agency over Ukraine disinformation campaign. Britain targeted a Russian disinformation network with sanctions against six entities and individuals involved in creating fake news websites targeting Ukraine.

Switzerland may reconsider ban on arms re-export to Ukraine. Switzerland’s defense industry faces mounting pressure as arms sales decline due to re-export restrictions on weapons to Ukraine, the country’s president said on 28 Oct.

Finland seizes Russian assets worth tens of millions of dollars at Naftogaz’s reques. Six companies of the Naftogaz Group have secured a court order to seize Russian assets in Finland as compensation for property lost in Crimea.

New Developments

Ukraine’s HUR, partisans blow up bridge in occupied Berdiansk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The destruction of a railway bridge in Berdiansk, reportedly carried out by Ukraine’s intelligence and resistance, has severed a vital supply link, complicating fuel and ammunition deliveries for Russian forces.

Zelenskyy: Russia lost 650 thousand killed and wounded in war. The Ukrainian military reports eliminating 1,680 Russian forces in a single day as total Russian losses surpass 690,000 personnel since the war began.

Ukraine arrests UN aid volunteer accused of spying for Russia in Donetsk Oblast. The male suspect used food aid delivery routes to gather and transmit sensitive military information about Ukrainian defense positions to an identified Russian intelligence officer.

WSJ: North Korea sends young, inexperienced, malnourished soldiers to Russia to test ground in Ukraine as “mere cannon fodder”. North Korean troops’ training has mainly focused on mountainous operations against South Korea, leaving them potentially unprepared for the flat borderlands of Ukraine’s front lines.

UK Ambassador in Ukraine: Russia shows no sign of seeking just peace. Britain has announced a £2.26 billion ($3 bn) loan to Ukraine secured by frozen Russian assets, marking a significant shift in how Western support is financed

ISW: Economic strain and manpower shortage may force Putin to change his war strategy. The increase in soldiers’ salaries and deployment of North Korean troops indicate problems with current mobilization through contracts, while Putin seems reluctant to announce a new wave of compulsory mobilization.

Read our earlier daily review here