Russo-Ukrainian war, day 996: Ukraine reportedly targets Russia’s Belgorod military base with HIMARS

Exclusives

What can Biden still do for Ukraine in his final days in the White House?. With just 70 days left in office after Trump’s victory, Joe Biden faces critical decisions on $6 billion in military aid, deep-strike authorizations, and advancing Ukraine’s NATO bid that could reshape its war effort well into 2025.

Why Trump’s path to beating China runs through Kyiv. While Donald Trump views Ukraine as a European distraction from confronting China, Beijing’s coordinated axis of Russia, Iran, and North Korea reveals why victory in Kyiv is crucial to breaking Chinese power.

EU Parliament demands crackdown on Russia’s shadow tanker fleet. “This transport is killing the reach of the sanctions against Russia and finances the war against Ukraine. Every ship that goes through means more suffering for the Ukrainian people,” a leading MEP told

Military

Forbes: Predictable Russian tactics in Kursk salient play into Ukrainian defenses. Rigid Russian tactics in Kursk, based on faulty intel, see them repeatedly attack along predictable roads, sustaining heavy casualties from Ukrainian defenses.

Clock ticks for Russia: Combat operations escalate in Ukraine before Trump takes office. With Donald Trump set to take office on January 20, 2025, Russian forces are ramping up efforts to breach Ukrainian defenses in the Donetsk region, according to military expert Mykhailo Samus.

Deep State: Kurakhove remains epicenter of fighting, nearly 700 clashes in two weeks. Russian troops are concentrating their efforts on the Kurakhove area, storming the city from multiple directions in an attempt to capture a key highway.

Alleged Ukrainian rocket strike injures six Russian soldiers in Belgorod. Russian sources claim GMLRS rockets were downed, but at least one hit a military equipment site.

Deep State: Russian forces entered Kupiansk, but Ukraine repelled the assault. Two Russian columns advanced toward Kupiansk from Lyman Pershyi, with Ukrainian forces destroying several vehicles including an MT-LB and a tank.

Frontline report: Ukraine traps Russian forces in Kursk direction after calculated withdrawal. Ukrainian forces allowed Russian mechanized units to advance through lowland settlements before cutting them off from high ground positions in forests and hills.

As of 13 NOV 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 714380 (+1770)
• Tanks: 9300 (+24)
• APV: 18896 (+49)
• Artillery systems: 20408 (+56)
• MLRS: 1249
• Anti-aircraft systems: 996
• Aircraft: 369
• Helicopters: 329
• UAV: 18798 (+61)
• Cruise missiles: 2636
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 28966 (+96)

Intelligence and Technology

Ukraine may face Russian strike with 90 Kalibr missiles launched at same time, warns former navy official. As winter approaches, Russian forces may target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in a large-scale missile attack. Ukrainian Captain Andrii Ryzhenko reports that Russian submarines in the Black Sea pose a significant threat capable of launching Kalibr missiles from secure underwater positions.

Ukraine’s Corvette Hetman Ivan Mazepa advances in trials, enhancing NATO-standard naval integration.

Massive drone attack targets Krymsk airfield in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai, authorities say (video). Russian authorities reported intercepting dozens of drones, citing minor damage to homes and vehicles. Videos captured explosions, fueling reports that drones may have struck the airfield.

North Korean M1989 Koksan long-range self-propelled artillery spotted in Russia. This weapon can pose a significant threat as a counter-battery weapon that can reach the firing positions of Ukrainian long-range artillery.

International

Orbán urges EU to rethink sanctions against Russia to lower energy costs. Earlier, Orbán urged a review of a $50 billion aid package to Ukraine and warned that Europe cannot sustain Ukraine’s defense alone if US support wanes.

Russian Gazprom halts Austrian gas deliveries from 16 November. “Once again, Russia is using energy as a weapon,” Austria’s Environment Minister Leonore Gewessler says.

France completes training of Ukraine’s newly-formed Anna of Kyiv Brigade. The Brigade completed training in France under EU military assistance, receiving cutting-edge weaponry including VAB APCs, CAESAR howitzers, and Milan anti-tank missiles.

Ukraine, Norway ink deal to accelerate arms production for Kyiv’s defense needs. With a €500 million aid package already pledged, Norway has joined the Danish format of defense support, focusing on direct funding for Ukrainian weapons manufacturing and tailored procurement to meet Kyiv’s military needs

Pentagon: US commits $ 7.1 bn in military aid before Biden’s term ends. With just months left in his term, President Biden has committed to sending $7.1 billion in military aid to Ukraine from the Pentagon’s stockpiles.

Foreign Affairs: Kyiv must show president-elect Russian victory harms his interests. Ukraine seeks to sustain US support under Trump, leveraging past strategies while bolstering alternative partnerships and domestic defense capabilities.

Zelenskyy: Germany to deliver sixth IRIS-T air defense system to Ukraine by late 2024. Zelenskyy and Scholz agreed that the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in the “Ramstein” format will hold its next online meeting in November.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Woman killed, ten injured in Russian air attack on Odesa, including nine-year-old child. Other Russian attacks injured at least eight other civilians across frontline regions.

Political and Legal Developments

Scholz calls for peace in Ukraine during first phone call with Putin in two years. In a recent phone call, Russian ruler Vladimir Putin expressed openness to negotiations, yet maintained his stance on retaining territories seized during the war.

NBC: Trump insiders frustrated with Musk acting like “co-president”. Elon Musk’s active role in the transition has sparked admiration from Trump and criticism from insiders, who accuse Musk of overstepping and pushing personal agendas.

ISW: Kremlin policies signal Putin’s growing concern over long-term economic stability. Kremlin policies, including 21% interest rates and long-term population growth plans, underscore concerns over Russia’s defense industry and workforce.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry denies Times report on Ukraine’s nuclear capabilities. Ukraine’s foreign ministry has explicitly rejected reports suggesting the country could develop nuclear weapons within months, emphasizing its commitment to international non-proliferation agreements.

WSJ: Trump-Putin “warm” relationship conceals deep tensions over Ukraine. Putin’s refusal to make concessions complicates any potential peace talks with the US, despite Trump’s public outreach.

Memorial reveals 34 Russian sailors died in 2023 Novocherkassk ship sinking. Ukrainian cruise missile strike destroyed Russian landing ship Novocherkassk in occupied Feodosia port on 26 December 2023.

Read our earlier daily review here.