Sheehy leads Tester in Montana Senate race's home stretch

Republican Tim Sheehy is narrowly leading Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in the home stretch of the Montana Senate race, according to a new poll released on Sunday.

A survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill found Sheehy leading Tester 50 percent to 46 percent, with 3 percent undecided.

When factoring in undecided voters who are asked which candidate they’re leaning toward, Sheehy receives 51 percent while Tester receives 48 percent. Because the poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 points, the two are effectively tied.

The polling also found 48 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of Tester versus roughly 51 percent who said they had an unfavorable opinion of him.

Forty-eight percent said they had a favorable opinion of Sheehy while 50 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion of him.

“With just over a week until Election Day, the incumbent Senator’s support among Montana voters faces a test as Trump appears poised to exceed his 2020 margin of 16.4 percentage points in the state,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, explained in a press release. “Split-ticket voters are crucial for Tester, with about 1 in 10 Trump voters also backing him on the Senate ballot, while virtually no Harris supporters lean toward Sheehy.”

Kimball also noted that Tester performs better with women by 14 points while Sheehy performs better with men by 22 points.

Tester is one of two Democrats representing a state Donald Trump won in 2020 and running for reelection this cycle. Recent polling has shown Tester may have an increasingly tough bid against Sheehy.

The Montana Democrat is seeking his fourth term and has experience running in tight races before. He narrowly won his last bid in 2018 against Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) by more than 3 points.

But Tester’s name is also set to appear on the same ballot as Trump’s and during a presidential cycle when more voters are likely to cast ballots, which could make his latest reelection a tougher climb.

An aggregate of Montana Senate surveys compiled by Decision Desk HQ shows Sheehy leading Tester 51 percent to 44 percent. 

The survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill was conducted between Oct. 23 and Oct. 25 with 1,000 likely voters surveyed. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.