Strikes on rear facilities in Russia undermine Russians' ability to advance – ISW

Continued Ukrainian strikes on Russia's rear logistics facilities, in addition to the destruction of ammunition stockpiles and the storage facilities themselves, will lead to greater operational pressure on the Russian military.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Ukrainian strikes on targets in Russia could affect offensive operations throughout the entire line of contact in Ukraine if Ukrainian troops have the material base, capabilities and authorisation to conduct a large-scale campaign to strike logistics and support facilities in Russia.

The ISW pointed out that Ukrainian troops carried out a series of HIMARS strikes on Russian ammunition depots across occupied Ukraine in the summer of 2022, which forced Russian troops to disperse their ammunition depots and reduced the efficiency of Russian logistics at the time.

Quote: "Repeated strikes against ammunition depots within Russia that cause similar levels of damage to the strike in Toropets may force a similar decision point on the Russian military command to reorganise and disperse support and logistics systems within Russia to mitigate the impact of such strikes.

Russian forces may not have addressed vulnerabilities at many logistics facilities within Russia due to the sanctuary space that restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons have generated, although the Toropets facility is not within range of Western systems fired from Ukraine.

The lifting of restrictions on the use of Western systems and the continued development of Ukraine's own long-range strike capabilities may allow Ukrainian forces to more effectively exploit such Russian vulnerabilities."

More details: The ISW also noted that in July 2024, Ukrainian forces struck another Russian ammunition depot near Sergeevka, Voronezh Oblast, and further Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition and missile depots could also destroy a significant portion of Russian materiel. 

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 18 September:  

• Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone strike against a Russian missile and ammunition storage facility near Toropets, Tver Oblast on 18 September.
• Continued Ukrainian strikes against rear Russian logistics facilities within Russia will generate wider operational pressures on the Russian military beyond the individual destruction of ammunition stockpiles and logistics facilities.
• Russian authorities arrested the head of the Central Military District (CMD)'s armour service on 18 September on suspicion of receiving a large bribe. This is yet another corruption case against a high-ranking Russian military official since Andrei Belousov's appointment as Russian Defence Minister in May 2024.
• An unsuccessful armed assault against several offices of Russia's largest online retailer Wildberries in Moscow City highlights the fragility of Russia's domestic stability.
• Armenian officials continue to criticise the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) amid worsening bilateral relations between Armenia and Russia.
• Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova condemned Israel for simultaneously detonating thousands of pagers belonging to Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) members across Lebanon and Syria on 17 September, signalling Russia's continued rhetorical alignment with Iran's Axis of Resistance against Israel.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces regained positions in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces recently advanced along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, within Toretsk, southwest of the city of Donetsk, and in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• The Russian State Duma announced on 18 September that it approved a bill in its first reading that proposes releasing Russian servicemembers serving in Ukraine from criminal punishment associated with cases actively being tried in Russian courts.

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