Supreme Court races in key states could tip scales on policy questions
Unlike Georgia and Nevada, battleground states such as Arizona, North Carolina and Michigan will likely see high-stakes state Supreme Court races.
Little noticed but high-stakes elections on the November ballot will be for seats on state Supreme Courts, where legal precedents will be set on matters such as abortion, election integrity, gun rights, redistricting and other issues.
In 2024, 82 state Supreme Court seats are to be decided by voters in 33 states and Guam, according to Ballotpedia. Of those, 18 races are partisan, 34 are nonpartisan and 30 are retention elections, meaning that rather than deciding between two candidates, voters will determine whether a justice typically appointed by a governor will remain on the state’s high court. However, some of the races have already been decided, while other candidates are running unopposed on the November ballot.
Some of these judicial contests are happening in key battleground states, such as Arizona, Michigan and North Carolina, where turnout will almost certainly be high for the presidential contest.
"Across the nation, as the federal Supreme Court is tearing back the role of the federal court, you’ve seen an increased role for state courts," said David Porter, a former Michigan assistant attorney general.
In Michigan, where Democrats hold a 4-3 majority on the state's high court, two Supreme Court seats are being contested. Although races are nonpartisan, state parties endorse a candidate.
Andrew Fink, a Republican state representative, is running against Kimberly Thomas, a professor at the University of Michigan Law School, for an open seat.
Incumbent Supreme Court Judge Kyra Harris Bolden was appointed by Democrat Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in November 2022. This year she is running to retain her seat against Patrick O’Grady, a state circuit court judge. Whitmer appointed Bolden to fill a vacancy left by the departure of Judge Bridget Mary McCormack.
"In the last two decades, the state Supreme Court was led by a conservative majority," Porter said. "We are now seeing a big shift. Liberal justices have taken control and are more interested in revisiting decisions of the past 20 years."
Porter described Justice Elizabeth Clement as a swing vote; so, if Democrats expand their majority to 5-2, it could sometimes be 6-1 decisions.
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In Arizona, voters will determine if two Republican-appointed justices, Clint Bolick and Katheryn Hackett King, will remain on that state's high court.
It’s not clear if voters are noticing state Supreme Court cases more, but political donors seem to, said former Arizona Solicitor General Dominic Draye.
"I don’t know if voters are paying more attention to these races, but there is more out-of-state money being spent than in the past retention races," Draye told Fox News Digital. "I don’t remember before seeing yard signs. Now I see yard signs everywhere, and I’m getting mailers to retain or don’t retain."
All seven justices are Republican appointees, and two are up for retention in November. If the seats open up, Democrat Gov. Katie Hobbs would pick their replacements.
"It has devolved into a policy debate instead of a debate about whether a judge can be fair and impartial," Draye said. "There are people who want to obtain certain outcomes in the judicial process and change the composition of the court."
In North Carolina, Republicans have a 5-2 state Supreme Court majority and aim to make it 6-1. Incumbent Judge Allison Riggs, a Democrat, is running against Republican challenger Jefferson Griffin, a state appeals court judge.
Although Nevada is a fiercely contested battleground state between presidential candidates, three incumbent state Supreme Court judges, Elissa Caddish, Patricia Lee and Lidia Stiglich, are running unopposed and have nothing to worry about from the likely high voter turnout.
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Meanwhile, another high-profile state on the national stage, Georgia, already had state Supreme Court elections in May.
Though not a battleground in the presidential race, other states will likely have high voter turnout for competitive Senate races that will trickle down to the Supreme Court races.
Montana has two nonpartisan high court races. One is between Broadwater County Attorney Cory Swanson and former federal magistrate Jerry Lynch. Another is between two district judges, Katherine Bidegaray and Dan Wilson.
Ohio also has a highly competitive Senate race, another incentive for voters to turn out. The state has a 4-3 Republican majority. One Ohio race has two incumbent justices.
Gov. Mike DeWine appointed Justice Joseph Deters in 2023 to fill the remaining term of Justice Sharon Kennedy after Kennedy won the chief justice seat. But Deters opted to remain on the court and is challenging another incumbent, Democrat Justice Melody Stewart.
Also in Ohio, Democrat Justice Michael Donnelly is facing Republican challenger Megan Shanahan, a Hamilton County judge. Democrat Lisa Forbes, a state appeals court judge, is facing Republican Dan Hawkins, a Franklin County judge, for an open seat.
In Kentucky, conservative-leaning Chief Justice Laurance VanMeter is retiring at the end of his term. That leaves a nonpartisan race for a vacant seat between Lexington attorney Erin Izzo and Pamela R. Goodwine, an appeals court judge who has the backing of Democrat Gov. Andy Beshear. Though the winner of the race will fill a vacant seat, the next chief justice will be chosen by colleagues on the court.
Two of the nation’s largest states also have Supreme Court races in November.
In Texas, three Republican justices are facing Democrat challengers, who are all district judges. GOP incumbent Jimmy Blacklock is facing Democrat DaSean Jones; GOP Justice John Devine faces Democrat Christine Weems; and Justice Jane Bland is fending off Democrat Bonnie Lee Goldstein.
In Florida, two justices, Renatha Francis and Meredith Sasso, have retention elections. Both are appointees of Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.
