Team GB at the Paris 2024 Olympics: How many medals will British athletes win?

It’s only 20 years since the Athens 2004 Olympic Games, although a look at Team GB’s historic medal performance makes it feel like ancient history.

Two decades ago British athletes won just nine golds, 30 medals in total and finished in 10th place for the second Olympics in a row.

Since then Team GB has enjoyed a truly golden era in which they have never come lower than fourth in the medal table. 

At each of the last three Games, British competitors have won more than 20 golds and surpassed 60 medals in total.

After a peak of 29 golds at London 2012 and second place in the medal table at Rio 2016, results tailed off slightly in Tokyo.

So will their fortunes continue to decline at Paris 2024? Or will Team GB bounce back at the closest thing to another home Olympics?

UK Sport’s Team GB medal prediction

We examined three rigorously researched medal projections for Team GB in Paris – and the most striking aspect is probably how alike they are.

UK Sport, the body responsible for distributing funding, forecasts that British athletes will win between 50 and 70 medals at this summer’s Games.

Team GB hit that range at each of the last four Olympics, ranging from 51 at Beijing 2008 to 67 in Rio, which set and remains a record.  

If the forecast sounds a little vague, it may be because a bigger range gives UK Sport more leeway to argue that they hit their target.

PwC’s Team GB medal prediction

Next we looked at two independent projections, the first of which was compiled by advisory behemoth PwC. 

PwC says its model takes into account not only performance at past Olympics but also demographic and economic size, and income levels.

Its forecast is very specific and has Team GB winning 54 medals, of which 20 are gold. That is down on the last three Games but better than Beijing 2008 and its predecessors.

However, that tally would place Britain fifth in the table, behind the US, China, Japan and France – the team’s worst finish since Athens 2004.

Gracenote’s Team GB medal prediction

The other independent analysis we examined was carried out by Gracenote, an arm of media analysis giant Nielsen.

Its Virtual Medal Table forecasts just 17 golds for Team GB, which would be their lowest total since 2004, albeit nearly double the Athens figure.

Gracenote predicts British athletes will win 63 medals for the fourth Games in a row. Until London 2012, this had not been achieved for more than a century.

With gold count determining medal table position, that would see Team GB repeat their fourth-place finish from last time in Tokyo.