The Data Doesn’t Lie: Anti-Trans Legislation Kills
In a revelation that’s as shocking as finding out water is wet, a study published yesterday in Nature has confirmed that state-level anti-transgender laws are causing significant harm to transgender and nonbinary, or TGNB, young people. The study, titled “State-level anti-transgender laws increase past-year suicide attempts among transgender and non-binary young people in the USA,” provides empirical evidence that these laws are not just political statements—they’re life-threatening policies.Between 2018 and 2022, 48 anti-transgender laws were enacted across 19 states in the U.S. These laws range from restricting access to gender-affirming health care to banning trans and nonbinary youth from participating in sports aligned with their gender identity. The researchers utilized a difference-in-differences research design—a method often used in economics to determine the impact of policy changes—to estimate the causal effect of these laws on suicide attempts among TGNB young people aged 13–24.The findings are nothing short of alarming. For trans and nonbinary youth aged 13–17, there was a 7–72 percent increase in past-year suicide attempts in states that enacted anti-transgender laws relative to states that did not. For the broader age group of 13–24, the increase was 38–44 percent. These aren’t just statistics; they’re real lives being affected by legislation that targets some of the most vulnerable members of our society.The study found “minimal evidence of an anticipatory effect in the time periods leading up to the enactment of the laws.” In plain English, this means that the harm isn’t just coming from the debates or the introduction of these bills—it’s the actual enactment that’s causing the spike in suicide attempts. The laws are the problem.The researchers point out that anti-transgender laws serve as a form of structural minority stress. They “signal a broader societal rejection of their identities, communicating that their identities and bodies are neither valid nor worthy of protection.” For trans and nonbinary youth, who are already at higher risk for mental health issues due to societal stigma and discrimination, these laws compound existing stressors.One particularly contentious area is the restriction of access to gender-affirming health care. Advocates of these laws often cite unfounded concerns about the potential negative effects of such care. However, the study notes that “gender-affirming healthcare has well-established benefits,” including improved mental health and well-being. By restricting access, these laws are not protecting youth—they’re harming them.The study also highlights that trans and nonbinary minors are disproportionately affected. “States enacting anti-transgender laws led to TGNB young people aged 13–17 reporting 33–49 percent higher rates of at least one past-year suicide attempt,” the researchers found. This is compared to a 25–27 percent increase among those aged 13–24.Why the disparity? Younger trans and nonbinary individuals often have less autonomy and fewer resources. They rely on parents or guardians for access to health care and other essential services. Anti-trans laws targeting minors strip them of the already limited avenues they have for support, exacerbating feelings of isolation and hopelessness.This study couldn’t come at a more critical time. As of December 2023, an astounding 84 state-level anti-transgender laws had been enacted out of 589 proposed across the country—a 300 percent increase from the previous year. And the trend shows no signs of slowing down.The researchers warn: “Legislators and other involved parties must consider the negative impacts of these laws on TGNB people when enacting similar future legislation, while prioritizing legislation that fosters acceptance of TGNB people and equity.”Writing in her Erin in the Morning newsletter, Erin Reed provides some additional context:The findings add to a growing body of research showing that gender-affirming care saves lives, while bans on such care, along with forced outing policies in schools and bathroom restrictions, have significant impacts on transgender youth and young adults in affected states.A Cornell review of more than 51 studies determined that trans care significantly improves the mental health of transgender people. One major study even noted a 73% lower suicidality among trans youth who began care. A similar study found a 40% reduction in actual suicide attempts over the previous year. In a recent article published in the Journal of Adolescent Health in April of 2024, puberty blockers were found to significantly reduce depression and anxiety. A randomized controlled trial in Australia, which was only possible through an innovative methodology, showed a 55% reduction in suicidality for trans men able to start testosterone. In Germany, a recent review by over 27 medical organizations has judged that “not providing treatment can do harm” to transgender youth. The evidence around transg
In a revelation that’s as shocking as finding out water is wet, a study published yesterday in Nature has confirmed that state-level anti-transgender laws are causing significant harm to transgender and nonbinary, or TGNB, young people. The study, titled “State-level anti-transgender laws increase past-year suicide attempts among transgender and non-binary young people in the USA,” provides empirical evidence that these laws are not just political statements—they’re life-threatening policies.
Between 2018 and 2022, 48 anti-transgender laws were enacted across 19 states in the U.S. These laws range from restricting access to gender-affirming health care to banning trans and nonbinary youth from participating in sports aligned with their gender identity. The researchers utilized a difference-in-differences research design—a method often used in economics to determine the impact of policy changes—to estimate the causal effect of these laws on suicide attempts among TGNB young people aged 13–24.
The findings are nothing short of alarming. For trans and nonbinary youth aged 13–17, there was a 7–72 percent increase in past-year suicide attempts in states that enacted anti-transgender laws relative to states that did not. For the broader age group of 13–24, the increase was 38–44 percent. These aren’t just statistics; they’re real lives being affected by legislation that targets some of the most vulnerable members of our society.
The study found “minimal evidence of an anticipatory effect in the time periods leading up to the enactment of the laws.” In plain English, this means that the harm isn’t just coming from the debates or the introduction of these bills—it’s the actual enactment that’s causing the spike in suicide attempts. The laws are the problem.
The researchers point out that anti-transgender laws serve as a form of structural minority stress. They “signal a broader societal rejection of their identities, communicating that their identities and bodies are neither valid nor worthy of protection.” For trans and nonbinary youth, who are already at higher risk for mental health issues due to societal stigma and discrimination, these laws compound existing stressors.
One particularly contentious area is the restriction of access to gender-affirming health care. Advocates of these laws often cite unfounded concerns about the potential negative effects of such care. However, the study notes that “gender-affirming healthcare has well-established benefits,” including improved mental health and well-being. By restricting access, these laws are not protecting youth—they’re harming them.
The study also highlights that trans and nonbinary minors are disproportionately affected. “States enacting anti-transgender laws led to TGNB young people aged 13–17 reporting 33–49 percent higher rates of at least one past-year suicide attempt,” the researchers found. This is compared to a 25–27 percent increase among those aged 13–24.
Why the disparity? Younger trans and nonbinary individuals often have less autonomy and fewer resources. They rely on parents or guardians for access to health care and other essential services. Anti-trans laws targeting minors strip them of the already limited avenues they have for support, exacerbating feelings of isolation and hopelessness.
This study couldn’t come at a more critical time. As of December 2023, an astounding 84 state-level anti-transgender laws had been enacted out of 589 proposed across the country—a 300 percent increase from the previous year. And the trend shows no signs of slowing down.
The researchers warn: “Legislators and other involved parties must consider the negative impacts of these laws on TGNB people when enacting similar future legislation, while prioritizing legislation that fosters acceptance of TGNB people and equity.”
Writing in her Erin in the Morning newsletter, Erin Reed provides some additional context:
The findings add to a growing body of research showing that gender-affirming care saves lives, while bans on such care, along with forced outing policies in schools and bathroom restrictions, have significant impacts on transgender youth and young adults in affected states.
A Cornell review of more than 51 studies determined that trans care significantly improves the mental health of transgender people. One major study even noted a 73% lower suicidality among trans youth who began care. A similar study found a 40% reduction in actual suicide attempts over the previous year. In a recent article published in the Journal of Adolescent Health in April of 2024, puberty blockers were found to significantly reduce depression and anxiety. A randomized controlled trial in Australia, which was only possible through an innovative methodology, showed a 55% reduction in suicidality for trans men able to start testosterone. In Germany, a recent review by over 27 medical organizations has judged that “not providing treatment can do harm” to transgender youth. The evidence around transgender care led to a historic policy resolution condemning bans on gender affirming care by the American Psychological Association, the largest psychological association in the world, which was voted on by representatives of its 157,000 members.
Jaymes Black, CEO at the Trevor Project, emphasized the real-world implications of these findings. “It is without question that anti-transgender policies, and the dangerous rhetoric surrounding them, take a measurable toll on the health and safety of transgender and nonbinary young people all across the country,” they said in a press release. “I urge every adult—no matter your political beliefs—to remember that transgender and nonbinary young people are our family, our friends, and our neighbors.”
It’s time we stop treating the rights and well-being of transgender and nonbinary youth as political footballs. The data is clear: Anti-trans laws are harming young people at an alarming rate. These are not abstract policy debates—they have tangible, devastating effects on real lives.
We need to shift the conversation from one of restriction and control to one of support and affirmation. Transgender and nonbinary youth deserve the same opportunities to thrive as any other young people. As this study powerfully demonstrates, our laws should protect them—not push them further into the margins.
