The Economist: Limited F-16 numbers in Ukraine hinder immediate effect on battlefield

Ukraine’s long-awaited F-16 fighter jets have finally arrived, marking a significant milestone in the country’s efforts to modernize its air force and defend against Russian aggression. The Economist says “the first ten (of an eventual 79)” F-16s touched down in Ukraine on 31 July, over two years after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy began requesting them.

For over two years, Ukraine has sought US-made F-16 fighter jets to enhance its air defenses against Russia’s air superiority. The first six jets have reportedly come from the Netherlands. NYT noted that Ukraine could receive only about 10 F-16s, at most.

According to The Economist, the arrival of these American-made fighter jets is expected to boost morale in Ukraine. However, experts caution that their immediate impact on the battlefield may be limited due to several factors.

• Ben Hodges, a former commander of American forces in Europe, expressed frustration over the delay in providing sufficient numbers of F-16s to make a significant impact. He cited a “pitiful” lack of training slots for Ukrainian pilots as a contributing factor, describing it as a “policy decision by the administration.”
• The complexity of the F-16s compared to Ukraine’s Soviet-era aircraft has necessitated extensive training for both pilots and flight engineers. Nico Lange, a former chief of staff in Germany’s defense ministry, highlighted that the incoming aircraft are a priority target for Russian forces, leading to their deployment in dispersed bases with underground or hardened shelters.
• Douglas Barrie, an expert on air power at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, suggests that the initial value of the F-16s will primarily be a morale boost. With only a small number of aircraft initially available, Ukraine is expected to use them cautiously to avoid losses that could provide Russia with a propaganda victory.

US sends cutting-edge AIM-9X air-to-air missiles for Ukraine’s new F-16 fighters

The F-16s are reportedly equipped with advanced air-to-air missiles and high-speed anti-radiation missiles. They can carry GBU-39 glide bombs, cluster munitions, and potentially Harpoon anti-ship missiles. These capabilities could help challenge the current impunity of Russian Su-34s bombing Ukraine’s front lines and defend against cruise missiles and drones.

However, a recent report by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggests Ukraine requires 12 squadrons or more, with 18 planes per squadron, i.e., 216+.

“Too few and too late though they may be, the F-16s’ importance should not be underestimated,” The Economist notes.

Related:

• ISW: Ukraine will need to continue targeting Russian air defense assets to enable F-16 use
• Ukraine receives F-16 fighter jets with early missile warning systems
• Zelenskyy confirms the delivery of F-16s and congratulates troops on the Air Force Day
• Ukraine reportedly receives 10 F-16 fighter jets in the first batch
• Atlantic Council: F-16 jets to bolster Ukraine’s air defense but won’t alter war dynamics, analyst says
• US sends cutting-edge AIM-9X air-to-air missiles for Ukraine’s new F-16 fighters