The Memo: Trump’s turbulent tariff moves pose risks with voters

President Trump eased his newest tariffs on Wednesday after two days during which those levies roiled financial markets.

But the latest tweak only adds to the uncertainty over what Trump’s longer-term policy will be.

The shadows of doubt — and the belief even among many conservatives that sweeping tariffs will raise prices for American consumers — pose real political dangers for the president.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed to reporters Wednesday that Trump would exempt the three major automakers — General Motors, Ford and Stellantis — from paying tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico for one month. 

But that was a modest-sized asterisk next to Trump’s imposition, starting Tuesday, of 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, and a doubling of tariffs on Chinese imports from 10 percent to 20 percent.

A near-immediate compromise deal on those tariffs, flagged as a possibility on Tuesday by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, had not materialized at the time of going to press Wednesday.

Now, huge swathes of the economy are on a roller-coaster ride, waiting to see whether there are more exemptions for specific industries, whether Trump will suspend the tariffs once again and, if he does not, how the nations affected will respond.

China hit back at this week’s tariff announcement threatening that “if war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war, or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”

The political danger here for Trump is broader than the battle over tariffs.

The volatility itself could, in time, fuel voter doubts about his core competency. That, in turn, could undercut his standing with the small but vital share of the electorate who still do not have an opinion set in stone about him. 

An Economist/YouGov poll released Wednesday found the nation split almost evenly on how it views Trump. The poll found 47 percent of Americans viewing him favorably and 50 percent unfavorably, most of them hewing to a “very” favorable or unfavorable view.

But Trump’s political fortunes might well rest with the roughly 1 in 5 Americans who view him less emphatically, one way or another.

Those are the voters who Democrats have not been able to win over by their frequent claims that Trump is an aberrational danger to the fabric of the republic.

But ham-fistedness or chaos on the president’s part could alienate those voters in the end. 

After all, back in 2020, a key factor in Trump’s defeat was voter concern over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to exit polls, voters who saw COVID-19 as the most important issue backed former President Biden over Trump by more than 20 points.

Beyond tariffs, there have already been other missteps in Trump’s first six weeks back in power that have raised the competency question.

Many of them relate to the government-slashing effort spearheaded by Elon Musk.

In mid-February, a significant number of employees — up to 350, according to The Associated Press — were fired from the National Nuclear Security Administration. The vast majority of those firings were rescinded the next day, presumably amid concerns about whether nuclear safety would be compromised.

The Department of Agriculture saw a similarly chaotic U-turn during the same period, initially firing some employees working on the avian flu outbreak.

A department spokesperson acknowledged to NBC News at the time that several people were “notified of their terminations” but that they were “working to swiftly rectify the situation and rescind those letters.”  

Musk’s quasi-official Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has also been caught making significant errors as it has sought to provide proof of its savings.

Most notably, DOGE misstated savings from one canceled contract at $8 billion, when the correct sum was $8 million. Reuters reported Tuesday that “in the last two weeks alone, DOGE has deleted hundreds of claimed savings, including some of the largest items that it had previously boasted about.”

On Ukraine, Trump’s approach has primarily been questioned on the grounds of the policy itself rather than competency.

But the infamous Oval Office clash between Trump, Vice President Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has caused tremors across Europe, as leaders try to figure out how to best deal with the American president’s volatility.

To be sure, the dangers to Trump should not be overstated.

He is riding high for several reasons: November’s election victory, Republican control of the Senate and the House, his iron grip on the GOP, and the general sense that Democrats are struggling to get traction in their political battle against him.

Furthermore, some of the policies that elicit most angst among liberals are popular with the broader public. 

The Economist poll and a separate survey from CBS News both showed significant support for his approach on immigration, for example.

His actions on that topic were viewed favorably by a 13-point margin in the Economist poll and by an 8-point margin in the CBS News poll.

But, for all his current momentum, Trump’s political strength is not as robust as he or his allies claim. 

Polling and data site 538 puts him already underwater in terms of favorability, being seen negatively by 48 percent of Americans and positively by 46 percent.

That is thin ice on which to skate if the tariffs issue, or anything else, calls Trump’s core competence into further question.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.