The True Cost of Biden’s Unconditional Support for Israel

When I resigned from the State Department over the Biden administration’s unconditional support for Israel’s slaughter in Gaza, I felt a brief sense of relief. For the nearly six months between October 7 and my resignation, my workday had felt like a deluge of horror, flooded with the specifics of what was happening inside Palestine and U.S. support for it. In the evenings, I would go home and play with my toddler, grateful for the distraction and yet haunted by the children of Gaza. Holding my daughter in my arms, the screams of parents holding the lifeless bodies of their own daughters and sons would echo through my brain.

But the initial relief of resigning publicly was quickly replaced with despair: Nothing seemed capable of changing unconditional U.S. support for Israel.

Coverage of Gaza has described Israel’s genocidal actions as unprecedented: Israel has dropped more tons of explosives than fell on Hamburg, Dresden, and London, combined, in World War II; Israeli attacks have caused the fastest death rate in a twenty-first-century conflict; Israel blocking aid has caused the fastest rate of starvation ever recorded. And yet the Biden administration has made clear that there is nothing that Israel could do that would undermine U.S. support. Biden had expressed concerns about Israel’s plan to invade Rafah, where over a million civilians had fled, and the administration even paused a shipment of weapons. Yet when Israel destroyed Rafah, the administration refused to acknowledge that Netanyahu had clearly crossed a boundary Biden set, and instead recently announced the weapons shipment would proceed.

Biden has publicly acknowledged that Netanyahu’s interests are best served by the violence continuing. In his June 4 interview with Time magazine, Biden was asked, “Some in Israel have suggested that Netanyahu is prolonging the war for his own political self-preservation. Do you believe that?” Biden replied, “There is every reason for people to draw that conclusion.”

Biden knows that Netanyahu is determined to maintain the violence. And yet his administration continues to lie that Hamas is the reason there hasn’t been a cease-fire agreement. Netanyahu has repeatedly and intentionally humiliated him, and yet Biden keeps sending Israel more weapons and more money.

In the past few weeks, public attention has shifted from Biden’s support for Israel’s slaughter in Gaza to another example of Biden’s intransigence: his unwillingness to withdraw from the presidential race after a catastrophic first debate. For Americans who have not been paying attention, Biden’s stubborn refusal to listen to ever-increasing calls for him to step aside may seem bewildering. This is especially maddening for many of my former colleagues inside the State Department, who had seen Biden as someone who, unlike Trump, would be guided by reason, morality, and U.S. interests. But to me and others who have watched Biden ignore both the moral and strategic imperatives for withdrawing support from Israel, the president’s current obstinance is unsurprising.

Until now, many Americans have been able to look away; they do not click on the link that shows them what is happening in Gaza; they are not woken by nightmares of people screaming. But as Netanyahu’s government strikes further and further afield, risking a massive regional war that could ensnare American troops as well, Americans may find the damage wrought by U.S. policy harder to ignore.

By maintaining its unconditional support, the United States is increasing the likelihood that Netanyahu may launch a full-out war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Biden administration has consistently said it wishes to avoid a regional war and has publicly taken credit for preventing one. But the main reason open war hasn’t broken out is that Hezbollah and Iran have demonstrated restraint. According to the nonprofit Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, Israel is responsible for 83 percent of the missiles crossing the Israeli-Lebanese border. Hezbollah’s leaders have indicated their unwillingness to expand the war and desire for a cease-fire in Gaza. Likewise, after Israel destroyed the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, Iran’s retaliation was limited, and Tehran ignored Israel’s subsequent provocations. However, Kamal Kharrazi, foreign affairs adviser to Ayatollah Khamenei, said that if the war expands, “Iran would have no choice but to support Hezbollah by all means.” He added that the expansion of the war is not in anyone’s interest.

The Israeli military has said that Israel is ready for “all-out war” in Lebanon, and an offensive against Hezbollah has already been approved. Whenever that begins, Hezbollah and possibly Iran will respond ferociously, and Israeli civilians will die. These outcomes are bad for Israel. They are bad for the United States. But they are good for Netanyahu.

Media frequently highlight the Hamas strategy of operating in civilian areas, so that attacks on Hamas facilities kill innocent people and generate international outcry. But Netanyahu’s logic appears similar: Provoke Hezbollah to attack Israeli civilians and regain the backing of the American public.

Bibi’s interests are clearly served by Palestinians dying, and they will be served by Israelis dying; he wants to stay in power and out of jail. Biden’s interests are not served by any of this. A war involving American soldiers would extinguish Joe Biden’s dimming electoral prospects: After an initial surge of support for Israel, dead soldiers would remind Americans why they are so tired of unnecessary wars in the Middle East. Netanyahu will then have Trump in the White House again, which is exactly what he wants. Despite Biden’s support for this war, Bibi knows that Trump would have even fewer compunctions about the lives and rights of Palestinians.

Even if a regional war didn’t serve Bibi’s interests so well, it’s not inconceivable that he might consider starting one solely to ensure a Republican victory in November. Biden’s campaign managers should be frantically trying to convince him to avoid war in the region simply for the sake of his own increasingly unlikely reelection. The timelines between the U.S. presidential race and Israel’s escalating attacks are eerily similar: On July 24, Prime Minister Netanyahu will address a joint session of Congress. He is likely to use the address to ask for congressional support to launch his war against Lebanon. Analysts I have spoken with believe Bibi may attack in September, which could embroil the U.S. in conflict just before Election Day.

All of this suffering is avoidable. The suffering of Israelis on October 7, and the suffering of Palestinians both prior to it and since would have been avoided had the U.S. truly been committed to pressing Israel to achieve a political solution. The suffering of the people of Gaza could have been avoided, and could still be ended, if the U.S. used its significant leverage to demand Israel commit to a permanent cease-fire. And the suffering of the people of Lebanon and Israel that would occur during a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah can yet be averted if the U.S. is willing to press for restraint.

In all of these conflicts, no one benefits—not Israel, not Palestinians, and certainly not the United States, for whom continuing conflict and instability in the region are not only a draw on our Treasury but a cause of deep harm to our own global standing and national security. But most of all, as I hold my daughter in my arms, I know that mothers cry—Palestinian mothers, Israeli mothers, and American mothers. If Biden has any of the empathy left within him for which he was previously so renowned, it is surely time for him to hear our cries—and do something.