To ski or not to ski: How to plan a trip when snow is uncertain

You are about to spend a small fortune on a ski trip. The reports from the Alps are of muddy, brown slopes. A huge warm weather zone depositing nothing but rain has decimated the snow coverage between Christmas and into January.  What to do? Cancel, shift resort in the hope of finding better snow? Press on regardless?

The news has been full of horrendous over-crowding in any resort with at least some snow as thousands of skiers were forced into ever smaller areas of skiable terrain. This is no fun for anyone, and given that over crowded pistes lead to more collisions and injuries, I was seriously contemplating the options. 

With a ski trip booked for Andermatt in Switzerland things were looking dicey. Andermatt is a relatively small resort, famed for its fantastic off piste skiing and had long been on the target list for our annual boys trip. 

Along with a legion of other skiers, we were checking all the weather apps and webcams. Reports varied, with some giving grounds for optimism and others implying we would be grass skiing. 

For an in-situ report, I put a call into the guide office, manned by ski guides who are paid to know the conditions – after all, their lives and the lives of their clients depend on them knowing the forecast as well as the conditions both on and off piste.  Even the guide office were hedging their bets – forecasting snow is a tricky matter. A degree here or there can make the difference between wonderful, fluffy white flakes falling from the sky or dismal, snow wrecking rain crushing all the pent up excitement.

Our plan was to keep options open as long as possible. The flight was booked to Zurich and hire cars reserved. We delayed booking equipment and checked the hotel cancellation policy. Next we scanned for resorts within a two-and-a-half hour drive of Zurich. 

We were looking for a high resort (height is important but not definitive) but also somewhere in Austria where most runs are meadows rather than rock in the summer. Far less snow coverage is required to make meadows skiable than rocks.  

Our hotel, thankfully, was flexible. We continued to track J2Ski.com, Bergfex.com, snow-forecast.com and the Andermatt webcams. 

I lined up a resort in western Austria just in case – Montafon. It was chosen as our back up plan not only for the snow coverage being slightly better but also the aforementioned meadows prevailing across the area. St. Anton was the other choice but a slightly longer drive and with less accommodation at our modest budget.

Crunch time – departure minus seven days. Snow is falling. Will it last? How much? Will high winds blow it off the mountain? Will the additional snow make the off piste skiable and, more importantly, safe? We contemplated all these questions. The group was split. Given we had picked Andermatt for its off piste prowess, I was in favour of Montafon and coming back to Andermatt another year when the snow gods had been kinder. 

The guide I spoke to in Andermatt said that without a stable base he was unlikely to be taking off piste bookings until March. He warned it could be a dangerous season as far as avalanches are concerned. 

Stick or twist. We stick and thankfully made the right call… just. Andermatt certainly needed more snow for the off piste skiing to be safe but we just about managed to eek out some adventure with the blessing of a surprise snowfall. 

All the forecasting technology in the world doesn’t seem to have cracked the weather in the mountains. 

• Tourist Offices: andermatt.ch; montafon.at; Guide Offices: alpinesportsandermatt.com; montafon-bergfuehrer.at