Transcript: Gov. Josh Shapiro on Why Harris Is on Track to Beat Trump

The following is a lightly-edited transcript of the September 26, 2024 episode of The Daily Blast. Listen to this episode of the podcast here.

This is the Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.

Greg Sargent: If Kamala Harris can defeat Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, she almost certainly will win the presidency. The state is essential to all of Trump’s plausible paths to victory. And yet, the race in Pennsylvania is incredibly close. As of now, it’s a coin flip. And it’s not clear this will change between now and election day, so we’ll be white-knuckling it down to the very end. All this comes as both Harris and Trump campaigned in Western Pennsylvania this week. So why is it so close here? What is Harris’s path to victory? What sort of economic messaging can reach parts of the state that are less friendly to Democrats? Today, we’re really excited to be discussing all this with Pennsylvania’s Democratic Governor, Josh Shapiro. Governor, thanks so much for coming on with us.

Josh Shapiro: Great to be with you, Greg. Thanks for having me.

Sargent: Governor, you just did an event highlighting some of your policies cutting taxes on Pennsylvanians and lowering their costs, including lowering childcare costs and lowering costs for businesses that are trying to grow. Kamala Harris is campaigning on a similar set of proposals. She was in Pennsylvania on Wednesday talking about them. You talk to voters about costs a lot. Are they noticing your policies? Are they associating them with Democrats? And are they hearing about Harris’s proposals?

Shapiro: Well, Greg, they are seeing the effect of having a Democratic governor who’s able to work with Republicans and Democrats alike to get shit done here in Pennsylvania. We’ve cut taxes four separate times for families who are struggling to afford childcare. We tripled their childcare tax credit. We gave small businesses a tax credit both on childcare and being able to wipe out some of their losses. We cut taxes for seniors who are struggling to stay in their homes, and we cut business taxes overall that’s helping stimulate economic growth. I think people are seeing the effect of that because we didn’t just talk about it. We actually got it done. I think they understand. And certainly we’re seeing this in Republican and Democratic communities alike. They see that the policies we’re putting forward, the kind of common sense things that I’m doing, that Kamala Harris proposes to do, as a way to grow the economy and put more money back in people’s pockets.

Sargent: Governor, as of today, the polling averages have Harris ahead 1.3 points in your state. That’s incredibly close. What’s your sense? As of now, is Harris leading in Pennsylvania, even if it’s by an extremely slim margin, or is it functionally a tie?

Shapiro: I mean, look, it’s probably functionally a tie. But hear me on this, because I think some context is really important. The last two presidential races, Greg, came down to 44,000 votes and 80,000 votes to put that in some context for your viewers and listeners. That’s a point or less. So whether it’s statistically a tie or it’s one point, the reality is the races here come down to a few tens of thousands of votes. Now, I’d rather be us than them. Let me explain why. Let me offer a little bit of meat on the bone there to back up my statement. Kamala Harris is playing on his side of the field right now. She’s showing up in rural communities and getting some really positive feedback. I’m seeing, anecdotally, more signs, more volunteers, more people willing to join the Harris campaign in the communities that are those swing areas or the swing counties. And while you got to pick up those last few yards and get in the end zone—and those last few yards are really tough here in Pennsylvania—I think we’ve got momentum and I’d rather be us than them in this battle.

Sargent: Well, there’s no question that she’s really contesting parts of the state that are unfriendly to Democrats. I want to get to that in a minute. First, I want to get your response to what Donald Trump did this week. He held a rally in Pennsylvania. He attacked the population of Haitians that have moved to Charleroi in the southwestern part of the state. He said towns and villages across PA are “inundated” and that this represents a war on workers by Kamala Harris. I wanted to give you a chance to set the record straight on all those claims.

Shapiro: Well, let me make a few points. First, it’s complete and utter bullshit. He’s been called out on it by the town manager. He’s been called out on it by the Republican state senator who represents, quite honorably, that community. He’s been called out on it by local officials and others who have said what Donald Trump is saying is absolutely false. By the way, what Dave McCormick, the guy running for Senate against Bob Casey, has said about it is absolutely false. Charleroi is a wonderful community in Washington County, Pennsylvania, a community that has seen migrants contribute to their economy, contribute to their community. You’ve heard that from residents in the area. Charleroi is also a community that’s facing serious economic challenges. Instead of actually offering something that’s going to help them address their economic challenges, Donald Trump goes and shits on the community. It’s not only disrespectful, it’s really dangerous.

When Donald Trump creates a kind of “others” in our community, he puts people at risk and he makes us all less safe. That is really, really dangerous and destructive. I’ll tell you the other thing. They do have, as I said a moment ago, serious economic challenges with plant closures and other things. As governor, I’m working with the community to help lift them up, to help address that. I’d love to have elected officials and wannabe elected officials like Donald Trump actually do something constructive that helps the community instead of tearing them down.

The last point I’ll make is this, Greg, Laurie and I are blessed to have four kids. We try and teach our kids to love thy neighbor, to treat people as you would want to be treated. Basic common sense values, values that have been a law around since biblical times. Donald Trump fails that basic test of what we want for our kids, the way we all try to raise our kids. Charleroi and his attacks there, his attacks in Springfield, Ohio, which were of a similar way, just is really not only reprehensible from the standpoint of someone who wants to lead the nation. It’s reprehensible from the standpoint of someone who just failed the basic lessons that we try and teach our children.

Sargent: What about his underlying claim that immigrants threaten American workers and their livelihoods in some sense. Can you address that? The unemployment rate is 3.4 in Pennsylvania, so it’s hard to see exactly how this “inundation” by immigrants is really a war on American workers. But I’d like to get you to address it substantively. There’s an underlying claim there. Can you talk about it?

Shapiro: Well, his claims are all completely false. Legal immigration has helped strengthen communities across Pennsylvania, whether it’s on our farmlands or in our small towns, in our factories, in our manufacturing base, or in our small businesses. We have seen those who have legally come to this country, who have done the hard work to be here, who have come to communities, strengthened those communities. Now that’s not to say that we don’t have communities across Pennsylvania that have economic struggles and economic anxieties, and they’re real and they’re legitimate. But to point the finger at immigrants as the reason for that is not factually correct. It’s morally wrong.

Sargent: I want to bear down on this a little bit more. In addition to all the lies Trump is telling about Haitians, there’s no question they’re lies, it’s all nonsense, there’s another story underneath all that. It’s that mass immigration is eroding the sense of rural small town, nonmetro solidarity and community that people supposedly used to enjoy. And here’s my question: Do Democrats need to speak to that directly? It’s one thing to say, I’ll sign the bipartisan border bill that Trump cynically killed. Very good message. And, true, he did kill it.

Shapiro: Also would be helpful.

Sargent: They’re terrible on border security. Right. He said Trump sabotaged the country for his political purposes. It’s a good message and it’s true. But do Democrats need to take on the deeper argument a bit more? I noticed you said immigration is good. You don’t always hear Kamala Harris say that. You don’t always hear national Democrats say it. Should they say it more directly?

Shapiro: I think legal migration has helped strengthen this nation and strengthen the Commonwealth. When I go around and I talk to our farmers, they talk to me about immigration, and they want to see more migrants come legally to this country and help them on their farms. When I talk to small business owners or people who operate factories, they recognize that we need to make sure that we are both growing talent within our schools through investments in vo-tech and apprenticeship programs and other skills-based learning to help strengthen our communities, and to add to that, with migrants who come to this country legally and ready to work. I think that is all very, very important. When I listen to people in their communities, that’s what they’re sharing.

Sargent: I wonder if Kamala Harris could say it a little more directly, but let’s move on to something else. A Third Way study found that in the 2022 elections, you won over a larger percentage of Trump voters from rural, small town and ex-urban areas than any other Democrat. You flipped 15 percent of them, according to this study. Now part of that was your extremely weak and extremely crazy opponent, granted. But still, can you shed some light on what exactly you campaigned on and talked about to win those voters? And how can Democrats duplicate that now in these corners of Pennsylvania, these places in Pennsylvania? To what degree is economic messaging central to this? How did Democrats get on the right side of this the way you did?

Shapiro: Show up. Be willing to listen, not just talk. Absorb the concerns and the worries and the anxieties that people have, and then have a common sense plan that lifts them up that you can actually deliver on. Now, I had a history of delivering for these communities because I had served as attorney general. I arrested the drug dealers and those who were inflicting violence on their communities. I had taken on the opioid manufacturers. I took on the Catholic Church, probably the most powerful organization on the planet, who had been abusing thousands of children in Pennsylvania, including in those communities.

So I had a track record of delivering, but the economic message around my candidacy was one that I could talk in rural communities, urban, suburban communities about that was common sense. And I knew I could get that done even in an environment where I’ve got a divided legislature. I said we were going to invest more in our schools and drive the dollars out to the schools that needed it most. And we’ve done that. I said that I was going to invest a historically high amount of funds in agriculture and ag-innovation and make agriculture central to our economic development strategy in Pennsylvania so that it wouldn’t just be set off to the side, but key to our future, not just something that’s part of our heritage. I’ve delivered on that.

I spoke specifically about how our small businesses, especially in these rural communities, always got ignored and that we were going to put together new funds for them to get access to resources and open up state contracting to them so they could participate more in it. We’ve delivered on that. So I think it’s a matter of showing up, listening, hearing what their concerns are, offering a vision that you can deliver on that’s going to help lift them up, and then not being inconsistent with the way in which you’re going to represent urban and suburban communities as well, that there’s synergy between these areas that we don’t have to treat them separately.

That’s what I did. Voters obviously offered me more votes than anybody in the history of Pennsylvania running for governor, and I don’t say that to pat myself on the back. I say that because mathematically it shows that we are not just the votes of Democrats, but Republicans and independents as well in rural communities and elsewhere. I think that’s what you got to do. Show up, do practical things, listen and deliver for them.

Sargent: Well, Harris is clearly contesting these voters as well. She’s going to these parts of the state that you mentioned earlier. Some polls do show her hitting Biden’s 2020 targets with noncollege whites, a big demographic in Pennsylvania that we’re talking about here. Where does she need to get to with these voters to win and how does she get there? Is she there yet or not?

Shapiro: Well, there’s still 40 days to go. So, I mean, no one’s there yet. Everybody’s got to run through the tape and Kamala Harris is running through tape. Let me give you just one example to speak to their group that you were just referring to. And those are people who live here in Pennsylvania, who’ve chosen not to get a college degree or maybe couldn’t afford to get a college degree.

I think for too long, Democrats have ignored those folks. And actually, Democrats have said, if you want to get ahead, you must have a college degree. Now, if you want to get a college degree, that’s great. We need to work hard to make that more affordable for you. But we can’t just be disrespectful to those who seek to maybe go to the military and not get a college degree, who want to go and get a union apprenticeship, go through a union apprenticeship program and learn how to be a welder. And they don’t want to go to college or maybe want to go start their small business right out of high school. We need to treat all of those pathways to success with the same amount of respect.

And to treat them with the same amount of respect, government has to have initiatives and funding and other things that demonstrate a real respect. My first day in office as governor, I signed an executive order—first executive order I signed—doing away with the college degree requirement for basically all state government workers, little over 92 percent of state government jobs, over 66,000 jobs. Folks in the private sector have followed suit. We’ve invested in vo-tech and union apprenticeship programs and other training, skills-based learning. These are things that show you’re willing to respect people who choose not to get a college degree. Kamala Harris, why do I say all this? Kamala Harris was in Wolfsburg, Pennsylvania, the other night talking about these very issues, talking about how she wants to do away with the college degree requirement for federal jobs, talking about how she wants the private sector to follow suit, investing in skills-based learning and training. These are the things we’ve proven are successful here in Pennsylvania, not just politically, but in helping people out and turning their lives around.

Kamala Harris is for those things. She’s talking about those things. And I think it’s really powerful to speak about those things here in Pennsylvania. I think voters are going to say, You know what? She’s got my back. She’s got my best interests in line. I’m going to vote for her.

Sargent: I want to ask you about that. Is she currently right now doing what she has to do to win those voters in the numbers she needs to win the state?

Shapiro: I think she’s on her way to do that. Again, there’s 40 days left. So it’s not as though she’s done making the case or making the sale, if you will. She was in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, today talking about an economic message for the middle class and how she’s going to help cut childcare costs and invest in small businesses. This is all critically important stuff and things that are going to be really impactful come election day.

Sargent: Let me ask you this, Governor, why does Trump have an advantage on the economy? We all lived through 2020. It was a disaster. That was his last year in office. He was actually president then, even though he wants us to forget that. Now, the polls are a bit all over the place. Some data suggests Harris is getting close to fighting Trump to a draw on who is trusted on the economy in Pennsylvania, but some don’t show that. She’s behind him. Why is that? Why is it that voters in Pennsylvania believe Trump is good on the economy?

Shapiro: Look, you pointed out that those numbers are getting much, much closer than they have been in recent years. But she’s got to just continue to make the case. I think she’s making a strong case for cutting costs for families, for helping our small businesses. Remember, under Donald Trump, there was more chaos and fewer jobs. He was cutting taxes for people way at the top and making it harder for the middle class. Kamala Harris has a different approach there that’s going to cut taxes for the middle class and strengthen our economy here in Pennsylvania.

Sargent: Governor, is Harris going to win your state? What’s the path to victory from here exactly? What precise things does she need to do to get there?

Shapiro: I’m really really hopeful and I’d rather be us than them. I think the path to victory is doing exactly what she’s doing. Showing up, listening, treating people with respect, and offering a vision and plans that are going to help make people’s lives better. At the same time, remind people of the chaos that existed when Donald Trump was president before. I think she’s doing all those things, and over the next 40 days, she’ll continue to make the case and close this thing out real strong.

Sargent: Got to ask you this. What keeps you awake at night about what could still go wrong for Harrison in PA? What are the three things that, if they happen, she doesn’t get there, and how to avoid them?

Shapiro: Greg, I’ll tell you what keeps me awake at night: the safety and well-being of the people of Pennsylvania. That’s what keeps me awake at night. And, just making sure that I do my job as governor, focused on that. I think Kamala Harris and her campaign are doing a great job. They’re running an effective race. They’re going to continue to do that and I’m going to continue to help where I can make that case.

Sargent: Governor, thanks so much for coming on with us today.

Shapiro: Great to be with you.

Sargent: Thank you. Folks, make sure to check out some new content we have up at tnr.com: Yousef Munayyer analyzing Antony Blinken’s record on Gaza, and Casey Michel looking at think tank corruption. And tune into the latest episode of Silly Consciousness, where David Rothkopf and Alondra Nelson break down the UN’s AI report. Also check out a new episode of Deep State Radio with David, Rosa, Kori, and Ed discussing the latest from the Middle East and more. We’ll see you all tomorrow.