Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062037 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024 300 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Fourteen-E is struggling to maintain organized deep convection. Cold cloud tops in the tropical depression have warmed leaving a small, isolated burst of convection over 70 miles west of the exposed low-level center. The most recent satellite derived surface wind observations from this afternoon showed peak winds between 20-22 kt and the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt for this cycle. The depression has turned eastward with an estimated forward speed of 5 kt. On Thursday, the cyclone should turn east-southward to southeastward in the near-surface flow and maintain this general motion into the early weekend. The official track forecast has shifted by quite a bit to the east due to the more accurate initial position provided by the scatterometer data. It lies closest to the simple consensus aid, TVCE. As noted in the previous discussion, wind shear and dry air seem to be preventing the tropical depression from organizing further. SHIPS forecast diagnostics have changed noticeably this cycle. Instead of light-to-moderate vertical wind shear, global models are now predicting the shear will be moderate-to-strong. Intensity guidance has shifted downward as a result and the official forecast has been lowered to only show a depression throughout the forecast period with dissipation occurring early this weekend. This is if the system can regain deep organized convection and maintain its tropical cyclone status. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 13.5N 105.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 13.2N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 12.4N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 11.6N 102.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 11.0N 102.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 10.8N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062037 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024 300 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Fourteen-E is struggling to maintain organized deep convection. Cold cloud tops in the tropical depression have warmed leaving a small, isolated burst of convection over 70 miles west of the exposed low-level center. The most recent satellite derived surface wind observations from this afternoon showed peak winds between 20-22 kt and the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt for this cycle. The depression has turned eastward with an estimated forward speed of 5 kt. On Thursday, the cyclone should turn east-southward to southeastward in the near-surface flow and maintain this general motion into the early weekend. The official track forecast has shifted by quite a bit to the east due to the more accurate initial position provided by the scatterometer data. It lies closest to the simple consensus aid, TVCE. As noted in the previous discussion, wind shear and dry air seem to be preventing the tropical depression from organizing further. SHIPS forecast diagnostics have changed noticeably this cycle. Instead of light-to-moderate vertical wind shear, global models are now predicting the shear will be moderate-to-strong. Intensity guidance has shifted downward as a result and the official forecast has been lowered to only show a depression throughout the forecast period with dissipation occurring early this weekend. This is if the system can regain deep organized convection and maintain its tropical cyclone status. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 13.5N 105.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 13.2N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 12.4N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 11.6N 102.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 11.0N 102.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 10.8N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
