Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070841 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024 300 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 The depression has finally managed to produce some deep convection, mainly to the northwest of the low-level center, during the diurnal maximum period tonight. A partial scatterometer pass around 0410 UTC depicted 20-25 kt winds in the northwestern quadrant, thus the initial intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory. The depression is currently within a moderate vertical wind shear environment, and this shear is not allowing convection to become organized around the low-level center. Global models are in fairly good agreement that the system will degenerate and open into a trough within the next day or so, although this could occur sooner than forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and now shows the system dissipating in 24 h. The system has been moving slowly the last several hours with an estimated east-southeastward motion around 110/02 kt. A more southeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is anticipated later today within the low-level northwesterly wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous, which lies near the simple and corrected-consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 13.4N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 12.5N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070841 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024 300 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 The depression has finally managed to produce some deep convection, mainly to the northwest of the low-level center, during the diurnal maximum period tonight. A partial scatterometer pass around 0410 UTC depicted 20-25 kt winds in the northwestern quadrant, thus the initial intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory. The depression is currently within a moderate vertical wind shear environment, and this shear is not allowing convection to become organized around the low-level center. Global models are in fairly good agreement that the system will degenerate and open into a trough within the next day or so, although this could occur sooner than forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and now shows the system dissipating in 24 h. The system has been moving slowly the last several hours with an estimated east-southeastward motion around 110/02 kt. A more southeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is anticipated later today within the low-level northwesterly wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous, which lies near the simple and corrected-consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 13.4N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 12.5N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
