Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 586 WTPZ43 KNHC 020234 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 800 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 The depression has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with visible and microwave satellite imagery showing a cluster of convection near or a little east of the low-level center. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the last advisory, and thus the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion remains 270/6 kt. The depression is expected to continue moving generally westward during its lifetime as it is steered by a broad mid-level ridge to the north. The latest track guidance is similar to, but a little slower than, the earlier guidance. Based on the latest aids, the new forecast track is also a little slower, in the middle of the track guidance envelope. The depression is currently in an environment of light shear and over relatively warm water, and this should persist through 48 h. While this environment seems favorable, the regional-hurricane models and the global models show little strengthening during this time. The intensity forecast follows these models and therefore calls for little change in strength. However, any strengthening would bring the system to tropical-storm strength, and the statistical-dynamical models do forecast some intensification. After 48 h, increasing shear is expected to cause this small system to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area. A 72-h point as a remnant low was added based on the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 11.1N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 11.1N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 11.1N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 11.2N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 11.3N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 11.3N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 11.3N 136.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024
586 WTPZ43 KNHC 020234 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 800 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 The depression has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with visible and microwave satellite imagery showing a cluster of convection near or a little east of the low-level center. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the last advisory, and thus the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion remains 270/6 kt. The depression is expected to continue moving generally westward during its lifetime as it is steered by a broad mid-level ridge to the north. The latest track guidance is similar to, but a little slower than, the earlier guidance. Based on the latest aids, the new forecast track is also a little slower, in the middle of the track guidance envelope. The depression is currently in an environment of light shear and over relatively warm water, and this should persist through 48 h. While this environment seems favorable, the regional-hurricane models and the global models show little strengthening during this time. The intensity forecast follows these models and therefore calls for little change in strength. However, any strengthening would bring the system to tropical-storm strength, and the statistical-dynamical models do forecast some intensification. After 48 h, increasing shear is expected to cause this small system to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area. A 72-h point as a remnant low was added based on the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 11.1N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 11.1N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 11.1N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 11.2N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 11.3N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 11.3N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 11.3N 136.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
