Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220242 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 Kristy is becoming better organized this evening. Bursts of deep convection are wrapping around the western semicircle of the circulation with upper-level outflow also present in this region. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range between 35 to 53 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory is raised to 40 kt, closest to the UW-CIMSS DMINT objective Dvorak estimate. The tropical storm is heading westward at 270/14 kt. This general motion should continue through Thursday while Kristy moves along the southern side of a subtropical ridge. By Friday and Saturday, the storm will reach a weakness in the ridge caused by a cutoff low over the north Pacific and gradually turn west-northwestward to northwestward. The latest track forecast is quite similar to the previous forecast and lies near the various consensus aids. The fragmented convection seen on satellite infrared imagery seems to indicate that there is a dry air intrusion possibly slowing Kristy's present organization. However, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are quickly becoming more conducive for significant to rapid intensification. Statistical guidance from SHIPS-RII is showing a high chance (72 percent) of 25 kt of strengthening in 24 h. Therefore, the latest NHC intensity forecast now explicitly forecasts this increase, making Kristy a hurricane on Tuesday and nudging up the peak to 100 kt in 60 h. On Friday and Saturday, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase and induce a weakening trend. This intensity forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope, between the HCCA and the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 13.7N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 13.9N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 14.2N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 14.2N 111.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 14.2N 115.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 14.1N 118.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 14.4N 121.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 16.4N 126.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 19.7N 131.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220242 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024 Kristy is becoming better organized this evening. Bursts of deep convection are wrapping around the western semicircle of the circulation with upper-level outflow also present in this region. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range between 35 to 53 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory is raised to 40 kt, closest to the UW-CIMSS DMINT objective Dvorak estimate. The tropical storm is heading westward at 270/14 kt. This general motion should continue through Thursday while Kristy moves along the southern side of a subtropical ridge. By Friday and Saturday, the storm will reach a weakness in the ridge caused by a cutoff low over the north Pacific and gradually turn west-northwestward to northwestward. The latest track forecast is quite similar to the previous forecast and lies near the various consensus aids. The fragmented convection seen on satellite infrared imagery seems to indicate that there is a dry air intrusion possibly slowing Kristy's present organization. However, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are quickly becoming more conducive for significant to rapid intensification. Statistical guidance from SHIPS-RII is showing a high chance (72 percent) of 25 kt of strengthening in 24 h. Therefore, the latest NHC intensity forecast now explicitly forecasts this increase, making Kristy a hurricane on Tuesday and nudging up the peak to 100 kt in 60 h. On Friday and Saturday, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase and induce a weakening trend. This intensity forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope, between the HCCA and the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 13.7N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 13.9N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 14.2N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 14.2N 111.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 14.2N 115.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 14.1N 118.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 14.4N 121.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 16.4N 126.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 19.7N 131.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci
