Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 21
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 262035 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 The cloud pattern of Kristy continues to decay, with the low-level center now exposed to the south of what remains of the mid-level circulation due to strong shear. The current intensity is set to 55 kt using a blend of the most recent Dvorak estimates. A continuation of this shear along with cool water temps should lead to further weakening, and Kristy is forecast to become a remnant low early on Sunday. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and the latest consensus aids. The storm continues to move northwestward at about 12 kt. Kristy should turn more westward overnight as the circulation becomes more vertically shallow and steered by a low-level ridge. Other than a small westward adjustment, little change was made to the NHC track forecast, and the new prediction lies just west of the consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 20.7N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 21.7N 129.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 22.3N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0600Z 22.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 262035 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 PM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 The cloud pattern of Kristy continues to decay, with the low-level center now exposed to the south of what remains of the mid-level circulation due to strong shear. The current intensity is set to 55 kt using a blend of the most recent Dvorak estimates. A continuation of this shear along with cool water temps should lead to further weakening, and Kristy is forecast to become a remnant low early on Sunday. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and the latest consensus aids. The storm continues to move northwestward at about 12 kt. Kristy should turn more westward overnight as the circulation becomes more vertically shallow and steered by a low-level ridge. Other than a small westward adjustment, little change was made to the NHC track forecast, and the new prediction lies just west of the consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 20.7N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 21.7N 129.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 22.3N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0600Z 22.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
