Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 23
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 270835 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Kristy's organization on satellite imagery continues to rapidly decay, with the last fragments of deep convection becoming sheared off around the time of the last advisory. Given the current lack of deep convection, the clock is ticking on Kristy's remaining time as a tropical cyclone. Despite this structure, a partial ASCAT-B pass at 0526 UTC revealed that Kristy still had a robust wind field on its western semicircle, with peak winds of 48 kt about 40 n mi northwest of the center. This scatterometer data was the basis for holding Kristy as a 50 kt storm at 06 UTC. Assuming continued spin down of the wind field absent of convection, the initial intensity for the 09 UTC advisory is a little weaker at 45 kt. Strong vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures around 24 C should deal a fatal blow to Kristy, and the updated NHC forecast shows Kristy becoming a post-tropical cyclone later today, and opening up into a trough on Monday. The tropical storm's motion has slowed considerably this morning as it becomes a shallow low-level circulation, with the estimated motion to the northwest at 320/6 kt. A prominent low-level ridge to the north should result in Kristy turning westward or even south of due west before it dissipates on Monday. The NHC track is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 22.0N 129.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 22.2N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 28/0600Z 21.9N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 270835 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Kristy's organization on satellite imagery continues to rapidly decay, with the last fragments of deep convection becoming sheared off around the time of the last advisory. Given the current lack of deep convection, the clock is ticking on Kristy's remaining time as a tropical cyclone. Despite this structure, a partial ASCAT-B pass at 0526 UTC revealed that Kristy still had a robust wind field on its western semicircle, with peak winds of 48 kt about 40 n mi northwest of the center. This scatterometer data was the basis for holding Kristy as a 50 kt storm at 06 UTC. Assuming continued spin down of the wind field absent of convection, the initial intensity for the 09 UTC advisory is a little weaker at 45 kt. Strong vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures around 24 C should deal a fatal blow to Kristy, and the updated NHC forecast shows Kristy becoming a post-tropical cyclone later today, and opening up into a trough on Monday. The tropical storm's motion has slowed considerably this morning as it becomes a shallow low-level circulation, with the estimated motion to the northwest at 320/6 kt. A prominent low-level ridge to the north should result in Kristy turning westward or even south of due west before it dissipates on Monday. The NHC track is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 22.0N 129.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 22.2N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 28/0600Z 21.9N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
