Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 220242
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024               
0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 105W       34 45   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
10N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 110W       34  X  39(39)  50(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
15N 110W       50  X   3( 3)  42(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
15N 110W       64  X   X( X)  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
10N 115W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 115W       34  X   X( X)  11(11)  76(87)   3(90)   X(90)   X(90)
15N 115W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  53(54)   5(59)   X(59)   X(59)
15N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)  30(30)   5(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
10N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  82(86)   2(88)   X(88)
15N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  58(58)   2(60)   X(60)
15N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)   1(38)   X(38)
 
10N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  59(72)   1(73)
15N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  39(41)   X(41)
15N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   X(22)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   4(15)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   7(15)
15N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  50(55)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI