Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021436 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 800 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Lane has continued to produce deep convection this morning over the low-level center, with cold cloud tops near -80 C. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have increased and range from 35 to 45 kt. Given the continued deep convection and using a blend of these satellite estimates, the initial intensity is set to 40 kt for this advisory. Lane continues to move westward at 270/6 kt, and this general motion should continue over the next few days as the storm is steered by a a subtropical ridge to the north. The latest NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and remains near the latest consensus aids. Warm sea-surface temperatures and a relative low wind shear environment could allow Lane to strengthen a little more today. Environmental conditions become less favorable on Sunday as southwesterly shear is forecast to increase over the system, and the storm is forecast to move into a drier airmass early next week, which should cause Lane to weaken. Lane is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in about 48 h, although given the small size of the system it could dissipate even sooner than forecast as is depicted by some model fields, including the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 11.3N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 11.3N 131.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 11.3N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 11.4N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 11.4N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z 11.5N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 11.5N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021436 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 800 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Lane has continued to produce deep convection this morning over the low-level center, with cold cloud tops near -80 C. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have increased and range from 35 to 45 kt. Given the continued deep convection and using a blend of these satellite estimates, the initial intensity is set to 40 kt for this advisory. Lane continues to move westward at 270/6 kt, and this general motion should continue over the next few days as the storm is steered by a a subtropical ridge to the north. The latest NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and remains near the latest consensus aids. Warm sea-surface temperatures and a relative low wind shear environment could allow Lane to strengthen a little more today. Environmental conditions become less favorable on Sunday as southwesterly shear is forecast to increase over the system, and the storm is forecast to move into a drier airmass early next week, which should cause Lane to weaken. Lane is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in about 48 h, although given the small size of the system it could dissipate even sooner than forecast as is depicted by some model fields, including the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 11.3N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 11.3N 131.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 11.3N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 11.4N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 11.4N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z 11.5N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 11.5N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
