Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030241 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 800 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Lane's presentation on satellite imagery is quickly becoming disheveled. This evening, a small burst of deep convection has attempted to reform a little east of the estimated center. However, an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass at 2155 UTC suggested the low-level center was starting to separate from this deep convection due to moderate mid- to deep-layer southwesterly shear. A partial ASCAT-B pass did show winds up to 40 kt near the center at around 18 UTC, but given the degradation in Lane's structure since that time, the initial intensity is being lowered to 35 kt, in best agreement with the objective intensity estimates from AiDT and SATCON. Continued southwesterly shear combined with increasingly dry environmental air should result in Lane's demise as it loses identity within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The latest NHC forecast shows Lane becoming a remnant low in 24 h and opening up into a trough in 48 h. This evolution could occur sooner than forecast given current trends and the fact several hurricane-regional model trackers lose the vortex over the next day or so. Lane still appears to be moving slowly westward, at an estimated 270/5 kt. As Lane becomes a shallow circulation, it will be primarily steered by the low-level trade wind flow on the north side of the ITCZ, leading to a slow westward to west-southwestward motion until the vortex dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is just a little south of the prior track, given the southward shift in the guidance suite this cycle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 11.3N 130.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 11.2N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 11.2N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z 11.2N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030241 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 800 PM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Lane's presentation on satellite imagery is quickly becoming disheveled. This evening, a small burst of deep convection has attempted to reform a little east of the estimated center. However, an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass at 2155 UTC suggested the low-level center was starting to separate from this deep convection due to moderate mid- to deep-layer southwesterly shear. A partial ASCAT-B pass did show winds up to 40 kt near the center at around 18 UTC, but given the degradation in Lane's structure since that time, the initial intensity is being lowered to 35 kt, in best agreement with the objective intensity estimates from AiDT and SATCON. Continued southwesterly shear combined with increasingly dry environmental air should result in Lane's demise as it loses identity within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The latest NHC forecast shows Lane becoming a remnant low in 24 h and opening up into a trough in 48 h. This evolution could occur sooner than forecast given current trends and the fact several hurricane-regional model trackers lose the vortex over the next day or so. Lane still appears to be moving slowly westward, at an estimated 270/5 kt. As Lane becomes a shallow circulation, it will be primarily steered by the low-level trade wind flow on the north side of the ITCZ, leading to a slow westward to west-southwestward motion until the vortex dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is just a little south of the prior track, given the southward shift in the guidance suite this cycle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 11.3N 130.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 11.2N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 11.2N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z 11.2N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
