Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 25
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091443 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Rafael is a sheared tropical storm. High-resolution AMSR2 passive microwave images received after the previous advisory showed the northeastward tilt of the vortex with height. Recent data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirm the surface center lies on the southwestern edge of the deep convective mass over the central Gulf of Mexico. The strongest winds are likely confined to the northeast quadrant of the storm underneath this sheared convection. Dropsonde data indicate the central pressure has risen to around 999 mb, and the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on flight-level winds from the aircraft. The storm is likely to continue weakening due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Moderate westerly shear (15-20 kt) through Sunday and mid-level relative humidities falling below 40 percent should make it difficult for Rafael to become better organized and sustain deep convection going forward. Steady weakening is shown in the NHC intensity forecast through Sunday, and Rafael is now predicted to become a post-tropical remnant low in 48 h. Rafael is moving west-northwestward (290/5 kt), but the storm is expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico within weakening steering currents during the next 24-36 h. As Rafael becomes weak and shallow, the track guidance agrees on a turn toward the south and south-southwest within the low-level flow through the middle of next week. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast, which lies near the center of the guidance envelope in good agreement with the TVCA simple consensus. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of the Upper Texas Coast into Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 25.2N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 25.4N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 25.6N 92.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 25.7N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 25.1N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0000Z 23.6N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 22.4N 93.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 20.5N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 18.5N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024
000 WTNT43 KNHC 091443 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Rafael is a sheared tropical storm. High-resolution AMSR2 passive microwave images received after the previous advisory showed the northeastward tilt of the vortex with height. Recent data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirm the surface center lies on the southwestern edge of the deep convective mass over the central Gulf of Mexico. The strongest winds are likely confined to the northeast quadrant of the storm underneath this sheared convection. Dropsonde data indicate the central pressure has risen to around 999 mb, and the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on flight-level winds from the aircraft. The storm is likely to continue weakening due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Moderate westerly shear (15-20 kt) through Sunday and mid-level relative humidities falling below 40 percent should make it difficult for Rafael to become better organized and sustain deep convection going forward. Steady weakening is shown in the NHC intensity forecast through Sunday, and Rafael is now predicted to become a post-tropical remnant low in 48 h. Rafael is moving west-northwestward (290/5 kt), but the storm is expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico within weakening steering currents during the next 24-36 h. As Rafael becomes weak and shallow, the track guidance agrees on a turn toward the south and south-southwest within the low-level flow through the middle of next week. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast, which lies near the center of the guidance envelope in good agreement with the TVCA simple consensus. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of the Upper Texas Coast into Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 25.2N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 25.4N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 25.6N 92.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 25.7N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 25.1N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0000Z 23.6N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 22.4N 93.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 20.5N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 18.5N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart
