Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 5

000
WTNT33 KNHC 042058
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
400 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024
 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN JAMAICA
LATE TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 76.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for
the Dry Tortugas.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana,
Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego
de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.system. 
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Cuba should closely monitor this system. 
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required 
tonight or early tomorrow.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was 
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 76.7 West. Rafael is 
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion 
is expected to begin later tonight and forecast to continue for the 
next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move 
near Jamaica late tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands late 
Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is now forecast and the 
system is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the 
Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by 
Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of 
Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in 
Jamaica by late tonight and are possible in central Cuba, and in the 
lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean 
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of 
Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with 
locally up to 9 inches are expected.  Flooding and mudslides could 
occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of 
the Southeast United States mid to late week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm 
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight.
Storm surge could raise water levels by 1-3 feet above normal tide
levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally 
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving 
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following 
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak 
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

SURF:  Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of 
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  
Please consult products from your local weather office. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly