Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 042054 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19) X(19) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 17(43) 1(44) X(44) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 24(58) 1(59) 1(60) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) 1(16) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 22(33) 3(36) X(36) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 5(30) 1(31) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) 1(21) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X(
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 042054
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19) X(19)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 17(43) 1(44) X(44)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 24(58) 1(59) 1(60)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) 1(16)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 22(33) 3(36) X(36)
NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 5(30) 1(31)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) 1(21)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 3(22)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 6(26)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 10(34)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 22(43) 2(45) 1(46)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) 1(15)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 48(53) 17(70) 1(71) X(71)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) X(30) X(30)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X 3( 3) 24(27) 50(77) 4(81) 1(82) X(82)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) 6(53) 1(54) X(54)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X 5( 5) 40(45) 27(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 12(12) 49(61) 5(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
MONTEGO BAY 34 29 57(86) 1(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
MONTEGO BAY 50 1 25(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
KINGSTON 34 65 12(77) X(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
KINGSTON 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
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FORECASTER KELLY
