Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 160233 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Sara continues to produce a large area of deep convection well north of the center, along with a tighter convective band on the western side of the circulation. Overall, the system hasn't changed much in satellite representation during the past several hours, so the initial wind speed will stay at 45 kt, consistent with most of the estimates. The storm has basically stopped moving tonight and is only forecast to creep westward overnight with very light steering currents. A mid-level ridge should strengthen to the north of Sara later on Saturday, which is forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move slowly toward the west-northwest through Sunday. Sara is likely to move into Belize on Sunday, with the only track forecast change being a slight slowdown, consistent with the latest guidance aids. While Sara is forecast to move over warm waters with light shear through Sunday, none of the regional hurricane models show any intensification, seemingly due to the broad structure of the wind field and perhaps land interaction. This seems reasonable given the current structure, and the latest forecast shows little change through landfall. Almost all of the aids show the system decaying into a remnant low or trough near the southern portion of the Yucatan peninsula, and that has been consistent with the guidance and the NHC forecast for the last few cycles. The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 16.2N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.3N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 16.6N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 17.0N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 17.7N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 160233 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Sara continues to produce a large area of deep convection well north of the center, along with a tighter convective band on the western side of the circulation. Overall, the system hasn't changed much in satellite representation during the past several hours, so the initial wind speed will stay at 45 kt, consistent with most of the estimates. The storm has basically stopped moving tonight and is only forecast to creep westward overnight with very light steering currents. A mid-level ridge should strengthen to the north of Sara later on Saturday, which is forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move slowly toward the west-northwest through Sunday. Sara is likely to move into Belize on Sunday, with the only track forecast change being a slight slowdown, consistent with the latest guidance aids. While Sara is forecast to move over warm waters with light shear through Sunday, none of the regional hurricane models show any intensification, seemingly due to the broad structure of the wind field and perhaps land interaction. This seems reasonable given the current structure, and the latest forecast shows little change through landfall. Almost all of the aids show the system decaying into a remnant low or trough near the southern portion of the Yucatan peninsula, and that has been consistent with the guidance and the NHC forecast for the last few cycles. The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 16.2N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.3N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 16.6N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 17.0N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 17.7N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
