Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 162042 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Sara's center has been pretty easy to find this afternoon, with 1-minute visible satellite imagery showing the low level center beginning to move westward away from the Bay Islands of Honduras and more into the Gulf of Honduras. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission flew through the center this afternoon, indicating little change in Sara's intensity with a 1000 mb pressure, peak 850 mb flight-level winds of 44 kt, and a dropsonde launched in the southwestern side of the circulation also indicating a surface wind gust of 37 kt. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory, though this could be a little generous based on the aircraft observations. The tropical storm now appears to be moving a bit faster to the west, with the motion estimated at 280/4 kt. Mid-level ridging is beginning to develop to the northeast of Sara and should help continue to move the system westward to west-northwestward until the tropical storm makes landfall in Belize at some point tomorrow morning. The NHC track forecast this cycle has been shifted a bit southward early on, partially related to initial position updates, but still lies near the center of the track guidance envelope. Intensity-wise, Sara's circulation has been significantly disrupted despite remaining just offshore. The broader circulation of the tropical storm has been interacting with the mountainous terrain of northern Honduras, and I suspect that some of the drying downslope flow off this higher terrain is playing some role in why Sara is struggling to produce much deep convection near its center currently. In fact most of the remaining convection is organized in fragmented bands well to the north of the center. Despite the relatively favorable environmental conditions, the current structure of Sara argues against much intensification before it moves inland over Belize in about 18 h, and the latest forecast shows little change in strength before landfall. After moving inland, weakening should commence and the global and hurricane-regional model guidance continue to indicate Sara will open up into a trough as it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. However its remnant moisture will continue to propagate northward and likely act as a focal point for enhanced precipitation ahead of the next frontal boundary along the northern Gulf coast by the middle of this week. As stressed over the past couple of days, the primary hazard associated with Sara remains catastrophic flash flooding, with substantial rainfall continuing to occur near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 16.4N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 17.1N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0600Z 18.5N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024
000 WTNT44 KNHC 162042 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Sara's center has been pretty easy to find this afternoon, with 1-minute visible satellite imagery showing the low level center beginning to move westward away from the Bay Islands of Honduras and more into the Gulf of Honduras. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission flew through the center this afternoon, indicating little change in Sara's intensity with a 1000 mb pressure, peak 850 mb flight-level winds of 44 kt, and a dropsonde launched in the southwestern side of the circulation also indicating a surface wind gust of 37 kt. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory, though this could be a little generous based on the aircraft observations. The tropical storm now appears to be moving a bit faster to the west, with the motion estimated at 280/4 kt. Mid-level ridging is beginning to develop to the northeast of Sara and should help continue to move the system westward to west-northwestward until the tropical storm makes landfall in Belize at some point tomorrow morning. The NHC track forecast this cycle has been shifted a bit southward early on, partially related to initial position updates, but still lies near the center of the track guidance envelope. Intensity-wise, Sara's circulation has been significantly disrupted despite remaining just offshore. The broader circulation of the tropical storm has been interacting with the mountainous terrain of northern Honduras, and I suspect that some of the drying downslope flow off this higher terrain is playing some role in why Sara is struggling to produce much deep convection near its center currently. In fact most of the remaining convection is organized in fragmented bands well to the north of the center. Despite the relatively favorable environmental conditions, the current structure of Sara argues against much intensification before it moves inland over Belize in about 18 h, and the latest forecast shows little change in strength before landfall. After moving inland, weakening should commence and the global and hurricane-regional model guidance continue to indicate Sara will open up into a trough as it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. However its remnant moisture will continue to propagate northward and likely act as a focal point for enhanced precipitation ahead of the next frontal boundary along the northern Gulf coast by the middle of this week. As stressed over the past couple of days, the primary hazard associated with Sara remains catastrophic flash flooding, with substantial rainfall continuing to occur near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 16.4N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 17.1N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0600Z 18.5N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
