Trump has edge over Biden in key battleground states, polling indicates

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in five battleground states as the president's numbers remain underwater, according to new polling data from the New York Times and Siena College that was released Sunday.

The polling data showed Biden trailing Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania among voters while leading in Wisconsin. Combining the data from all six states, Trump led Biden by 48 percent to 44 percent. The numbers improve a bit for Biden if only likely voters are counted, but Trump remains ahead everywhere except Wisconsin and Michigan.

The six states polled have proved decisive in the Electoral College in recent elections, a trend that is expected to continue in 2024.

The president's numbers were likely to be disappointing for him and his campaign in a number of important demographics, including among voters under 30, Hispanic voters, African American voters and urban voters. "In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six," the New York Times reported.

Most damning for Biden were the numbers on whether the country was on the "right track or wrong direction." At least 60 percent of the voters in each state said the nation was headed in the wrong direction.

Among independent voters, Biden held a slight edge over Trump, 39 percent to 37 percent. The percentage of those polled who said they would vote for another candidate if the choices were Biden and Trump ranged from 2 percent in Nevada to 6 percent in Georgia.

Trump's numbers reflected some weaknesses as well: In every state polled at least 44 percent of the voters said there was "not really any chance" that they would support Trump. But Biden's numbers were worse, with at least 47 percent of the voters in every state saying there was "not really any chance" they would support Biden, including a majority, 52 percent, in both Pennsylvania and Nevada.

Among those who said they voted in 2020, more of those polled in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin said they voted for Biden that year. Trump had a slight edge in Nevada and Pennsylvania.

The polls of 3,662 registered voters were conducted by telephone using live operators Oct. 22-Nov. 3. The margin of sampling error for each state is from 4.4 to 4.8 percentage points.