Trump Might Be Convicted in D.C. Just Days Before the Election

When will former President Donald Trump receive a verdict in his Washington D.C. criminal case? 

Possibly just days before the presidential election on November 5th, according to a new legal analysis. 

That timeline results from the D.C. Court of Appeals’ decision Tuesday to deny Trump’s claim of presidential immunity in a case over his alleged attempts to subvert the 2020 election. The move effectively tosses the ball to the Supreme Court, which must now decide how to respond to Trump’s inevitable next appeal, and whether to fast-track or slow-walk the process. 

Depending on what the high court does, Trump’s D.C. trial could start in June or July, and might not wrap up until Oct. 30, the legal experts wrote on the web site Just Security. The analysis suggests that Trump may well receive a verdict in this case before the election—but just barely. And that throws a massive wildcard into the 2024 race.

The possibility that the trial may wrap up within days of the election creates a dramatic, uncertain, nail-biter of a legal showdown unlike anything ever seen before in American presidential politics. And it raises the surreal possibility that Trump could be convicted of serious felonies that carry lengthy prison sentences right before he wins the presidency. There is no historical precedent for what might happen next.

A Trump guilty verdict before the election could matter enormously to the outcome of the vote itself. Polls say that many voters who have shrugged off Trump’s four indictments also say they wouldn’t support him if he’s convicted of serious crimes. While these early polls should be taken with a grain of salt, they point towards the possibility that a late-breaking verdict could make the difference in a tight race.

Nearly a quarter of Trump’s own supporters said he shouldn’t be the nominee if he’s convicted of a crime, according to a New York Times/Sienna College poll published in December.  In a September Reuters/Ipsos poll, a clear majority of Americans, 57 percent, said they would not vote for Trump if he’s convicted of a felony—including just under a third of Republicans.

The D.C. case had been scheduled to begin in early March. But that trial start date was taken off Judge Tanya Chutkan’s court calendar while this appeal wound its way through the system.

Right now, the first of Trump’s four criminal cases is likely to begin on March 25 in Manhattan, where the former president has been charged with falsifying business records relating to hush-money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, who claims she slept with Trump. 

But many observers think the New York case may be the least damaging to Trump, both from a legal and political point of view. It may carry no prison time even if Trump is found guilty. And Trump may be able to more easily convince the public that the case is frivolous, compared with the weightier accusation in D.C. that he tried to undermine American democracy. 

Trump’s other two criminal cases—in Georgia and South Florida—are widely seen as likely to go to trial after those in D.C. and New York.

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The new legal analysis was written by a team of legal experts including Norm Eisen, who served as former President Barack Obama’s White House ethics czar and as a lawyer for the House Judiciary Committee during Trump’s first impeachment.

The analysis presumes that the trial itself will last 8 to 12 weeks.  

If the Supreme Court refuses to take the case (or “grant cert,” in the legal lingo) then the whole thing could move faster, with a trial kicking off in early June and potentially wrapping up in late August or early September. If the Supreme Court does take the case, hears oral arguments and issues its own opinion, then a trial could start in July or so, and wrap up by mid-to-late October. 

The lawyers note there are several curveballs that could render this analysis irrelevant. 

But for the moment, it looks like Trump’s D.C. case has a shot at finishing up before the election—if only barely.