Trump's chances edge up in presidential race

Vice President Harris has lost some of her mojo in the battle for the White House. 

Former President Trump’s chances of a second term are edging up, and Democrats are fretful.

To be clear, Harris might well become the next president. But the small advantage she enjoyed after a strong launch to her candidacy, including a smooth Democratic National Convention and a powerful debate performance against Trump last month, has all but vanished.

The election forecast from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) now gives Harris a 51 percent chance of victory on Nov. 5. That’s down from a high of 56 percent in late September.

In The Hill/DDHQ battleground state polling averages as of Friday afternoon, Trump led in five of the seven states and Harris in just two. When this month began, Harris had a 4-3 edge.

Caveats are important in an election where the polling margins are so tight.

First, the polls could simply be wrong, and big issues — abortion for Harris, immigration for Trump — could see higher turnout for either candidate than pollsters are projecting.

Second, shifts of a percentage point or two, even in polling averages, could be statistical “noise” rather than real evidence of movement.

Third, polls offer only a snapshot, and there is still time for new developments to have an impact — especially in this dramatic year.

For example, the degree to which Trump has pushed false information regarding federal recovery efforts after Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton has drawn fire from Harris, President Biden and independent observers. 

If there is any public backlash to his actions, it won’t show up in polls for a few days.

Still, the big trend over the past week or so is a movement, by a small but clear margin, toward Trump.

Battleground states are tightening

Harris has led consistently in national polls since shortly after Biden dropped his reelection bid. This continues to be the case. She has a 2.9-point edge in The Hill/DDHQ national polling average.

The problem is, a national advantage only takes you so far. 

Twice this century, in 2000 and 2016, the Democratic presidential nominee has won the national popular vote and lost the election. In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by a comfortable 4.4 points — but he defeated Trump in the Electoral College only because he won three crucial states by a whisker.

The signs in the battlegrounds are worrisome for Harris.

In The Hill/DDHQ averages, she has now lost the lead to Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. In the former, she led by roughly 2 points in mid-August. In the latter — a state that has seen some of the biggest polling misses in the past two presidential elections — she led by almost 5 points in late August.

It’s worth underscoring just how tight the polling is in the seven key states. Nowhere does either candidate have an edge of more than 1 point.

Still, if every battleground fell exactly in line with its polling average in The Hill/DDHQ analysis — and all other results remained unchanged from 2020 — Trump would win the Electoral College by a clear 287-251 margin.

Other prominent polling averages, from Nate Silver and data site 538, have Harris still leading in Michigan and Wisconsin, albeit by narrower margins than before.

Still, the overall sense of an advancing Trump is enough to set off loud alarm bells among Democrats.

Harris’s media tour was only OK

Harris has been much more visible in media settings over the past week, pushing back against criticism from the right that she was dodging scrutiny.

A CBS “60 Minutes” interview was the most substantive of those appearances. She also guested on ABC’s “The View,” CBS’s “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” SiriusXM’s “The Howard Stern Show” and, on Thursday, a town hall event with Univision in Nevada.

She had some good moments. On “The View,” she unveiled a plan to make Medicare pay for at-home care — and spoke affectingly about caring for her late mother during Shyamala Harris’s battle with cancer.

But other moments were rockier, including evasive answers on how to pay for her economic plans during the “60 Minutes” interview.

Even in the friendlier milieu of “The View,” an answer that Harris gave to a question about what she would do differently from Biden — “there is not a thing that comes to mind” — was seized upon by Team Trump.

None of these moments was disastrous. And Harris’s aides would argue that she is being held to a much higher standard than the frequently outlandish Trump.

But even so, Harris’s overall media performance was adequate at best — adding to the sense that the honeymoon she enjoyed earlier in the campaign is well and truly over.

Doubts are seeping in about Democratic enthusiasm 

Former President Obama caused a stir when he hit the campaign trail this week — and not only for the strength of his criticism of Trump.

Obama, speaking in Pittsburgh, suggested that Black men are being held back from voting for Harris by sexism.

He noted that based on “reports” he was hearing from the campaign trail, “we have not yet seen the same kinds of energy and turnout in all quarters of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running.”

Obama added: “Part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren't feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you're coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that.”

The remarks were controversial in and of themselves — including among some left-leaning commentators who felt the former president was scolding Black men unfairly.

But his broader suggestion — that enthusiasm is short of where it needs to be for Harris — adds more fuel to the fire of Democratic concern.

Money hasn’t created a buffer for Harris

Harris’s fundraising prowess has been a bright spot for her campaign. 

The New York Times and other outlets reported this week that she has raised more than $1 billion for her campaign and its affiliated committees, outpacing Trump by a significant margin.

But Harris has also spent big money.

Bloomberg reported last month that the Harris team had spent an average of $7.5 million every day in August, compared to $2.6 million a day for Trump.

That expenditure was important to introduce Harris to voters as the nominee and to fend off initial attacks.

But now the question arises as to why Harris’s financial advantage hasn’t come close to catapulting her into a clear lead.

Notably, the Harris campaign is continuing to push for a second debate, despite Trump declining to participate.

On Thursday, Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon complained that Trump’s refusal to debate was “a disservice to the American people.”

When Harris was riding a wave of enthusiasm and rising polls, such statements looked like a campaign trying to press home an advantage.

Now, it increasingly sounds like a desire to try for a late game-changing moment.