UK Defence Intelligence forecasts increase in Russian losses in the next 2 months

UK Defence Intelligence expects that in the next two months, Russian losses in the war against Ukraine will be greater due to offensive operations.

Source: UK Defence Intelligence review dated 4 May, as reported by European Pravda

In April 2024, the average daily number of Russian casualties (killed and wounded) stood at 899. 

"It is likely that Russia's casualty rate will again increase over the next two months as they renew dedicated offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. This follows a slight decrease in the pace of operations over the past two months since the fall of Avdiivka," the review states. 

The intelligence service said that the total number of Russian casualties since the invasion began exceeds 465,000. 

UK intelligence asserts that Russia has adapted its military to a war of attrition, which relies more on quantity than quality. 

"This reliance on mass will almost certainly continue for the duration of the Ukraine war and have long-lasting effects on Russia's future army," the review concludes.

Background:

• In a previous review, UK Defence Intelligence reported that Russia had been forced to withdraw about 40 aircraft of various types from the area of the Kushchevskaya airfield after a recent Ukrainian strike – and to redeploy them to numerous airfields further from the original missile launch areas.
• UK intelligence has also analysed reports of a record number of desertion cases being considered by military courts in Russia, as well as a record number of requests from Russians for asylum in foreign countries.

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