UK intel: Russia fails to secure air superiority 1,000 days into Ukraine war
Over 1,000 days into the war, UAVs dominate strategies, with Ukraine targeting Russian depots and challenging Russia’s strategic defenses.
In its November 22 intelligence update, the British Defense Ministry says that over 1,000 days into the war, Russia has failed to secure air superiority, relying on SU-34 aircraft as airborne artillery. The war has shifted with increased UAV use, allowing Russia to recover missile stocks and complicate Ukraine’s air defense. Russia continues targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and air bases, with further strikes expected this winter to weaken Ukrainian resolve.
Throughout the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, Russia has struggled to achieve air superiority despite its technological and numerical advantages, with localized gains, such as in Avdiivka, being short-lived. Meanwhile, Ukraine has effectively countered Russian aerial threats through drone warfare, downing key Russian bombers, and anticipates enhanced capabilities with the introduction of Western fighter jets like the F-16.
The ministry wrote:
- Over 1,000 days into the conflict, Russia’s Aerospace Forces, despite technological and numerical advantage, have failed to gain air superiority over Ukraine. Russia has resorted to using their tactical level aviation — such as SU-34 aircraft — as airborne artillery.
- The major development which has changed the nature of the conflict has been the use of Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Since mid-2024, the number of One Way Attack UAV launches has likely allowed Russia the space and time to recuperate its Long Range Aviation fleet, and their associated Air Launched Cruise Missile and Air Launched Ballistic Missile stocks. Whilst Russia retains the ability to use these assets, the ultimate effect is that the Air Defence picture for Ukraine is increasingly busy, complex, and challenging. With this combination of systems, the Russians have consistently targeted Ukrainian critical national infrastructure (CNI) and air bases. Future strikes against Ukrainian CNI are expected this winter, as Russia attempts to break the will of the Ukrainian people.
- Ukraine has successfully used UAVs against military targets in Russia. In mid and late September, Ukraine struck four Russian strategic ammunition depots hundreds of kilometers from Ukraine. The total tonnage of ammunition destroyed across the sites represents the largest loss of Russian, and North Korean-supplied, ammunition during the war. The attacks again highlight Russia’s inability to protect strategic military sites from Ukrainian UAV attack.
Related:
- Second Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber downed by Ukrainian F-16, sources claim
- Russian bomber pilot linked to missile strikes on civilians killed with hammer in Russia
- Russian Kinzhal-capable MiG-31K fighters likely left Belarus after brief stay, monitoring group reports
- Media: Russians dropped at least 128 aerial bombs in Russia and occupied areas since March
- Can NATO veteran pilots solve Ukraine’s F-16 dilemma?
- ISW: Russia achieved localized air superiority in Avdiivka before capturing it
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