UK intel: Russia unable to capture Kharkiv City without deploying more forces

Russia's attacking Kharkiv Oblast to divert Ukraine elsewhere, but likely doesn't have enough forces currently deployed to capture Kharkiv city, per UK intelligence.

May 16, 2024 - 07:17

UK intel: Russia unable to capture Kharkiv City without deploying more forces

Ukrainian soldiers carry an artillery shell.

In recent days, Russian forces have launched a new offensive in Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast with their newly-formed Northern Grouping attacking and seizing control of several villages. The border town of Vovchansk is “almost certainly” an immediate objective being contested by Russian and Ukrainian troops, according to the British Defense Ministry’s intelligence update.

Overnight on 10 May, Russian forces launched a new offensive from the north into Kharkiv Oblast across the border, attempting to breach Ukrainian defenses and draw forces from Donetsk, with ongoing intense border battles complicating the situation. So far, Russia has captured several border villages.

By opening this additional front, Russia appears to be threatening the major city of Kharkiv and attempting to divert and pull Ukrainian military resources away from other parts of the active battlefield frontlines. However, according to an intelligence update from the UK Defense Ministry, it is unlikely that Russia has currently built up and deployed sufficient combat power and troop numbers in the Kharkiv region to successfully capture and hold the city itself without having to divert and redeploy additional forces into the area specifically for that purpose.

The ministry wrote:

Russia’s newly-formed Northern Grouping of Forces have attacked into Ukraine’s Kharkiv region and taken control of several villages. The border town of Vovchansk is almost certainly an immediate Russian objective and is currently contested between Russian and Ukrainian forces.
By opening up an additional axis of attack, Russia is almost certainly attempting to divert Ukrainian resources away from other parts of the front line and to threaten Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine. It is unlikely that Russia has built up sufficient combat power to take the city without diverting additional forces into the area.

Earlier, Ukrainian military intelligence chief General Budanov warned that Ukraine’s military, already struggling with troop shortages in northern Kharkiv Oblast, is bracing for a potential Russian offensive targeting Sumy Oblast.

Situation in Ukraine’s northeast as of 16 May 2024. Map: liveuamap

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